The prospect of a trade war has become more significant again. While China may fare worse than the US in this scenario, there are some broader implications that could enhance China's power on the global stage, not least via the One Belt One Road initiative. Here I discuss this and... Show More
The global economy is now more than seven years into a durable but modest expansion. But what will happen when the cyclical tailwind that began last summer fades? And how will key policies in the world’s major economies pivot in response to both rising populist pressures and diminishing returns from... Show More
As a holiday treat we're making the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes available for free: http://www.topdowncharts.com/2016-special-edition This edition looks at some of my favorite charts and themes of the year from the weekly report, including the charts that worked (and those that didn't... Show More
After the recent experience with the Brexit vote in the UK and election of Donald Trump as President of the US, which are indicative of a nationalist backlash against the pro-globalisation establishment, there is a fear that Europe will go the same way with nationalist forces in Italy, Austria, France,... Show More
Recent developments – including the rise of populism, developments in the South China Sea and around commodity prices along with relentless technological innovation – have relevance for longer term trends likely to affect investors. Being aware of such megatrends is critical given the short-term noise that surrounds markets. Key megatrends... Show More
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor of the Telegraph says “The US has exported its first shipment of natural gas in a historic move that shifts the balance of power in the global energy market and kicks off a struggle with Russia for market share. Surging US supply over the next... Show More
Bill Gross has released his latest “Investment Outlook” where he focuses on global interest rates and geopolitics. He concludes that “There is no statistical reason per se for the Fed to raise interest rates, yet absent a major Show More
The market's so complacent, I want to scream: Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen urges traders and investors to take a serious reality check, pointing out markets have ignored geopolitical risks, ignored the significant slowdown in European growth and at the same... Show More