Why QBE, TCL and CPU are the top 3 ASX Companies for higher rates in 2026

The RBA’s February hike has confirmed a difficult truth: inflation is structural, not transitory. While most investors view rising rates as a headwind, for a specific cohort of companies, these ‘twin thieves’ are acting as a catalyst for margin expansion.

Chart 1 – Forecasted interest rates in 2026

Source: Bloomberg February 2026

To win in 2026, investors must pivot away from cheap money survivors and toward companies with three specific advantages: the float, pricing power, and the productivity moat.

1. The "pure yield" beneficiary: ASX: QBE

Insurers are the primary beneficiaries of the higher for longer era. QBE’s multibillion dollar investment float acts as a powerful earnings catalyst, as the RBA maintains restrictive rates that flow directly to the bottom line.

Beyond the macro tailwind, QBE is a compelling value story, trading at an inexpensive forward P/E of approximately 11, combined with a 4.4% dividend yield and an active share buyback. QBE is aggressively repricing its premiums to protect margins, this transition toward lower volatility and stable, high quality profits mirrors the harvest phase we are seeing globally, where operational discipline turns structural shifts into an earnings.

Chart 2 – QBE’s share price vs the RBA rates since 2021

Source: Bloomberg February 2026

Having spent years refining its global footprint, QBE is now moving beyond its fix it era and into a phase of deliberate portfolio pruning. This strategic concentration, coupled with a simplified balance sheet, transforms the company into a leaner capital compounder targeting mid-teens ROE through the cycle. This makes it uniquely structured to thrive as the global insurance cycle matures in 2026.

2. The "Inflation-Linker": ASX: TCL

For an investor, the ultimate defence against inflation is an asset with baked in pricing power. Transurban is the gold standard here; its toll revenue is indexed to CPI, ensuring that as the cost of living rises, its top line follows suit.

Chart 3 – TCL’s share price and Free Cash Flow over the past ten years

Source: Bloomberg February 2026

Crucially, the overhangs that weighed on the stock in recent years such as regulatory reviews and major construction cycles are now clearing. This shifts the focus back to TCL’s robust 6-7% free cash flow growth and its heavily hedged debt profile. While old world utilities struggle with rising input costs, Transurban operates as a high margin infrastructure play where inflation acts as a revenue driver rather than a margin killer. It remains a cornerstone for those seeking a reliable dividend with upside in an uncertain macro environment.

3. The "Productivity Moat": ASX: CPU

Computershare is also an interest rate beneficiary. Managing over US$30 billion in client cash, it earns high margin income that scales with zero incremental cost as rates rise, and this earnings risk is skewed to the upside with 2026 margin income projected to increase.

Chart 4 – CPU’’s share price, Earnings and P/E over the past ten years

Source: Bloomberg February 2026

Beyond rates, CPU embodies the Productivity Moat. As labour costs rise, businesses are turning to its automation platforms to maintain efficiency. With a large rebound in corporate debt issuance and recovering M&A, CPU is moving from a defensive play into a harvest phase of high velocity earnings. Trading at a forward P/E of c. 16x, it remains a capital light winner facilitating the world’s financial plumbing.

The Global Perspective: From "Build" to "Harvest"

While the ASX offers specific domestic winners, the 2026 story is being written globally. The market has begun shifting from a build phase where companies spent heavily on infrastructure to a harvest phase, where those investments begin filtering through into profits from productivity gains and revenue growth.

The real winners in this higher for longer world are firms with near zero marginal cost models. As productivity steps up, these market leaders are growing earnings faster. In fact, the margin gap between these dominant companies and the rest of the market has broken away entirely.

Chart 5 – Margin Difference between the top ten and ex-top 10 S&P 500 companies

Source: Bloomberg February 2026

The Conclusion for 2026

As we navigate 2026, the strategy is clear: follow the cash, find the pricing power, and invest in the productivity moats that inflation cannot touch.

About ETF Shares

ETF Shares is a low-cost index ETF issuer, based at the Macquarie University Incubator. We specialise in US-focused ETFs, such as the ETFS Magnificent 7+ ETF (ASX: HUGE) and ETFS US Quality ETF (ASX: BEST)