Will volatility be a feature of reporting season?
Some of the recent moves in mid cap stocks are justified by the negative earnings revisions off leveraged balance sheets. If a stock is geared then a relatively small move in the earnings growth rate can have a more pronounced hit to that company’s equity. The other area of concern for the market is stocks that have grown via acquisition. These companies have de-rated as concerns around integration risk have come to the fore. A lower rating from the market for these stocks is a problem as subsequent acquisitions are less accretive. A few recent spectacular blow ups in well-owned midcap stocks have seen managers put their cue in the rack. Managers don’t want to have to spend the next 12 months explaining another disaster to their investors so at the first sign of trouble they get out; this leads to the sort of moves we’ve seen in recent times.
Chris Prunty is a co-founder and Portfolio Manager at QVG Capital; a boutique investment management firm specialising in smaller companies. QVG manages money on behalf of high net worth individuals and institutions in a 'best ideas' portfolio of...