With gold trading below USD $1300, and with BNP cutting their 2014 gold price forecast to $1,050 it's timely to show what 'consensus' forecasts for gold have...
With gold trading below USD $1300, and with BNP cutting their 2014 gold price forecast to $1,050 it's timely to show what 'consensus' forecasts for gold have looked like the past few years. It's useful because whilst this bearish outlook may prove correct in the short-term, anyone looking at investing in gold shouldn't pay too much attention. Consider the graph in the article linked (the whole article is a good read) Consensus forecasts have - all the way back to 2007 been for lower gold prices into the future, with 2009 forecasts predicting a 2013 gold price in the vicinity for $800. Even with the circa 32% drop we've seen in gold the past 2 years, we're still 60% above that $800 mark Also amazing that consensus opinion has never been bullish - exact opposite of a bubble you'd think. Bottom line - be careful when following the mainstream when it comes to gold (VIEW LINK)
Gold bull since early 2000. Have spent +20yrs working in investment analytics, research & portfolio construction. Author of two books on investing in gold and the causes of the GFC. Lover of markets, competition & technology