John Robertson

With the US Congress playing chicken with the world economy, Europe will have to shoulder more of the good news burden. In mid October, the European Commission statistical agency is scheduled to release August industrial production data. After having experienced the first increase in European GDP in the June quarter since the September quarter of 2011, a follow through would be needed to at least give the impression of a sustainable expansion. In July, European industrial production contracted by 1.5% - not a good sign for the quarter as a whole. See the chart of movements in European industrial production here: (VIEW LINK). A positive industrial production number for August would be a fillip to confidence even if it does not fully offset the contraction in the prior month. Another fall while a budget and debt fight continued in the USA would be worrying.


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