ZH: In a world in which everyone has become an ultra-short term pathological gambler, and every outcome is a zero-sum prop bet, it was only a matter of time...

ZH: In a world in which everyone has become an ultra-short term pathological gambler, and every outcome is a zero-sum prop bet, it was only a matter of time before someone tried to quantify the probability of the event that the market (for some inexplicable reason) is so transfixed on: the government shutdown (inexplicable, because anything more than a few day shutdown risks a full blown mutiny by the tens of millions of government workers). So without further ado, here is Nomura, with its estimate of a government shutdown on October 1: 40%