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Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Middle east conflict changes central bank forecasts

Geopolitical backdropTensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated sharply, marked by military exchanges and increasingly confrontational rhetoric. Attacks on key...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

What the oil surge means for the Fed’s path forward

The surge in Brent oil prices above $100, now sustained for over a week, has shifted the macro narrative from a temporary geopolitical shock to a potentially...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

RBA rate hike: A study in policy error

We are concerned that the RBA is tightening into a series of economic shocks that risk a far more material economic slowdown.
Tim Toohey
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

The risk of higher US interest rates

The Fed is formally forecasting a couple more rate cuts, but CCI's policy rules continue to point to a higher funds rate.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Oil shock means inflation and volatility - unless Iran conflict ends soon

Higher inflation and lower growth lie ahead; the question is, what will the magnitude be?
Chris Iggo
BNP Paribas Asset Management
Macro

FOMC holds policy rates with uncertainty front and centre

At its March meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a second consecutive...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

A sustained energy shock would raise the risk of recession

Oil shocks are stagflationary, limiting the scope of central banks to cut interest rates.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Has Australia reached the end of the Great Economic Ponzi Scheme?

As rising inflation and a worsening housing crisis puts political heat on property, I explore why intervention may only make it worse.
Paul Miron
Msquared Capital
Macro

Iran conflict triggers a major energy shock

The coordinated U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran on February 28 and Iran’s subsequent retaliation, have pushed the region into its most volatile military confrontation in...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

The Trump TACO: Why markets are betting on a deal while holding their breath

Markets look strong, but risk looms as hope for a Donald Trump TACO deal collides with the threat of a destabilising Middle East shock.
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Monthly market views: AI disruption and dollar hedging

Despite the disruption AI is creating across stock markets, one thing is clear – AI-driven investment spending continues to grow.
Chris Iggo
BNP Paribas Asset Management
Macro

US CPI data shows the calm before the storm

Consumer price inflation in February came in as expected, with the annual headline rate remaining steady at 2.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

Energy prices and the risk of stagflation

A sustained energy price shock would run the risk of high inflation and recession.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US Job losses temper labour market stabilisation hopes

The February employment report delivered significantly weaker-than-expected job losses, challenging the notion that the labour market was stabilizing after last...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

The Australian Dream has never been more expensive

A young couple trying to buy an entry-level house today is in the toughest position of any generation since records began.
Anthony Doyle
Pinnacle Investment Management
Macro

The RBA as an outlier among central banks

The RBA is underachieving on inflation and overachieving on employment, with monetary policy that is hardly restrictive.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Economic impacts of Iran conflict unfold

While there are reports that Iran has made indirect contact with the U.S. to explore a negotiated end to the conflict, the situation remains highly fluid. Outcomes...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Wealth

Loose money, strong growth, AI adoption, and productivity. What more do you want?

Longview Economics' Harry Colvin lays out the Goldilocks scenario for US and global markets in 2026
Chris Conway
Livewire Markets
Macro

Narrowly favouring a March RBA rate hike

We narrowly favour a rate hike in March .with scenario work suggesting the cash rate could reach 4¼-4¾% on persistent inflation.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Capex: AI boom evident

Australia's capex data shows a growing AI-driven investment surge, revealing the scale of the data centre boom and its economic impact.
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

3 market themes as geopolitical risk flares again

US-Iran escalation puts energy chokepoint risk back on the map. Here are three themes now shaping markets across scenarios.
Billy Leung
Global X ETFs
Macro

Oil to US$150? Oliver and Jennings rate the asset class impact of the US-Iran war

Oil could surge towards US$150, while gold and Australian government bonds are emerging as the key safe havens.
Vishal Teckchandani
Livewire Markets
Macro

Iran conflict creates a sharpening geopolitical fault line

What happened?On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated military operations against Iran, citing the need to neutralize “imminent threats from the...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

2026: A Tale of Two Cities

Investing across a bifurcated global economy.
Eric Souders
Payden & Rygel
Macro

The Great AI Repricing: from compute arms race to data moats

By deploying capital when others are sellers, investors can acquire stakes in dominant technology franchises at discounts to intrinsic value
Emanuel Datt
Datt Capital
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