First regulators capped how much banks can lend to homeowners. Now, it appears it will be up to the banks to set the limit. Bankers being bankers, they will likely up the size of home loans, chase market share, and crank up lending once again. This is not the only... Show More
Today I argue that Australia is behaving like the indulgent and entitled child of a billionaire, quote my own 8 year old's analysis of what the two political parties have to offer (even I was surprised), and explain why we are not residential-mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) haters and arguably one of... Show More
The latest episode of our very popular Complexity Premia podcast is now live where we discuss: the coming of Aussie quantitative easing (QE); the eruption of hostilities between the US and China in the trade war; the end of the great Aussie housing correction; why we are getting more positive... Show More
This week I argue that while RBA governor Phil Lowe passed with flying colours the controversial intelligence test we pitched him last week (by not cutting the cash rate in May), he is nonetheless likely to cut over the next few months. And although he is exhausting his conventional monetary... Show More
A big thanks for the incredible interest in our Complexity Premia podcast! Please note that this is nerdy investment content, and not for retail punters. In this episode we: discuss the huge credit rally that no experts expected at the end of 2018 (capitalising on this, our insto-only Active Composite... Show More
In the AFR today I reveal that very senior industry participants believe the RBA and APRA are considering a targeted alternative to a cut to the official cash rate, which would involve lowering the minimum 7.25 per cent interest rate banks use when assessing a home loan borrower’s repayment capacity... Show More
Today I write that if the RBA cuts the cash rate by 50bps or more, the housing bust will be over very quickly. We were by far the most accurate house price forecasters between 2012 and 2017 and the first mainstream analysts to call the end of the boom and... Show More
The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released its latest Construction Work Done figures for the December quarter. Not surprising, residential housing activity looks to have peaked and should soon begin to decline. Broadly speaking, it’s fair to say that the story we have been telling on house prices hitting the... Show More
RBA Governor, Phillip Lowe, opened his speech at the AFR Business Summit this morning by saying “Australians watch housing markets intensely, perhaps more so than citizens of any other country.” Never has a truer statement been made. Whether you’re a stock market investor, a housing investor, or nothing of the... Show More
Australian house prices are falling. Credit availability is tightening. US mortgage rates are rising. These and other factors have put building materials stocks under pressure. In this paper we assess value across the building materials sector given our assessment of “mid-cycle” housing starts and take a view on where we... Show More
