Australia's post-COVID surge in population eases a little
The post-COVID surge in Australia's population looks to have slowed a little in Q1 2024.
Australia’s population continues to grow at a very rapid rate, increasing at an annualised rate of 2.5% in seasonally adjusted terms in Q3, which places continued substantial pressure on the rental market.
More timely stats on the working-age population – which tends to grow at a slightly faster rate than the national population – show annualised growth slowing from 3% last year to 2.25% in Q1.
This indicates that growth in the national population has also eased a little, but is still strong.
Using the working-age data to extrapolate the level of the national population, we estimate that the population has finally returned to its pre-pandemic trend.
This suggests that the population should slow over the course of this year as migration returns to more normal levels, although we now have less confidence in this view.
Comparing Australia with the major advanced economies, this rapid growth in population stands out, although growth in both the euro area and the US has recently picked up to a much lesser extent on refugee/migration flows.
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Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy, contributing to the investment decisions of the firm. Kieran has long experience as a macroeconomist in both the private and public sectors. He has worked most recently as Chief Markets Economist for National Australia Bank and was previously Chief Economist, Australia and New Zealand, for Barclays Bank and ABN Amro Bank/RBS. Kieran also worked as Principal Adviser on the macroeconomy and budget policy in the Commonwealth Treasury and Director of Forecasting.
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Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy,...
Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy,...
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