September 27th, 1983. What comes to mind? What if I include the quote from Bob Hawke? “Any boss who sacks a worker for not turning up today is a bum”. If you are over 45, you will know straight away. It was the day the yacht Australia II won the... Show More
FIIG Securities guest economist, Saul Eslake looks at the current global shift by central banks in ‘advanced’ economies to increase inflation, rather than keep it down as seen in the past decade. He also details why tax cuts and Trump tariffs are likely to put the US under inflationary pressure... Show More
In recent years, markets have reacted positively to signs of inflation. Inflation has been indicative of improving conditions in the economy, and central banks have been encouraging it through artificially low rates and quantitative easing. Gopi Karunakaran, Portfolio Manager at Ardea Investment Management, says this is all changing in 2018. Show More
Beggars in China with QR codes hanging around their necks and others pleading with matrix-barcoded tins caused a stir when they appeared on Chinese city streets in the past year or two. Fellow Chinese shouldn’t have been surprised. These beggars are only keeping up with one of the most-rapid trends... Show More
Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year. Show More
In recent times, many column inches have been devoted in the financial media about an impending disaster in the High Grade/Government Bond market. As Government Bond specialists, we at JCB are amused to see many so-called financial experts comment on a product they have neither sold nor traded. Despite this... Show More
The year of 2017 was the year of the structural winner, with the market led higher by the digital platform “FAAMNGS” (the acronym keeps extending as the list of perceived winners broadens) and the stylistic domination of Growth. Disruption was never more topical with nothing appearing more disruptive than crypto-currency... Show More
For decades, the prevailing view of financial markets was one of rational actors creating efficient prices. In recent years, particularly in the wake of the GFC, investors have increasingly adopted a very different view of how markets operate. Loss aversion bias, anchoring, and herding (among others) have all become popular... Show More
To paraphrase from an excellent book, The Chimp Paradox; ‘to control your inner chimp, you first have to understand him/her’. This means understanding that your brain makes decisions that are not always in your best interest and the best way to do this set rules around certain behaviours to minimize... Show More
Local market jumped on global relief rally on less than expected hurricane damage and no missile test by NK. Local market had already priced in part of this relief rally upside yesterday as we moved on positive US futures…so we had the catch up session today. Given the China/Russia watered... Show More
Local market delivered the first solid positive day in over a week on the optimism that US Hurricane damage was better than expected. Growth worries drove commodities lower over the weekend. Local market bounced on the open on the back of the banks as global investors increased exposure to cover... Show More
Local market bounced back on positive US and China economic data. The local business capex outlook data was positive but the weak consumer sentiment shows that one has not translated to the other since GFC. The GDP growth rate hit 3% and maintains the recovery pace we have seen in... Show More
Local market recovered from early losses to finish flat on continued commodity optimism. Shanghai index making a big move higher today….positive China sentiment. Base metals are on fire while Iron Ore and Oil continues to prove bears wrong. Copper leading the charge and we see MLX and MOD as the... Show More
Local market climbed back higher gradually on the back of strong metal prices. Local market still struck in the narrow trading range since May. US market and geopolitics remain the macro overhang while reporting season is driving substantial volatility. Growth stories missing guidance or weak outlook statement are facing 15-20%... Show More
Local market fell on global sentiment despite bounce in Iron Ore and Oil. US market heads the negative catalyst list. US market risk remains key for local market…(1) VIX looks to break above post election high (2) Russell 2000 (i.e. US domestic facing) has pulled back below 200 day MA... Show More
Local market recovered to finish a better than expected negative day after substantially weak lead from US market. Global markets were rattled by the terror attacks in Spain while US market was worried that Gary Cohn may follow the CEO walkout from US president’s leadership groups. Global economies are showing... Show More
Local market started positive and maintained the pace with better commodities and higher rates outlook. US market remains the overhang and NASDAQ falls to the 50 day MA for the third time since US elections…last time NASDAQ broke 100 day MA, we had the high PE growth sell off…local investors... Show More
Local market closed slightly positive while sentiment remains weak. Gold outlook continues to improve with rising macro risk and weakening USD. Can the underperforming fund managers miss the third cycle in 12mth? FOMO in gold coming!!! Globally central banks are all talking about better inflation and potential rate rise in... Show More
Local market moved up despite weaker commodities and weaker AUDUSD while non-farm payroll data will set the tone for next week ahead of US Fed meeting. Consumer Staples, IT and Health Care moved the market higher while Metals, Mining, Gold and Property Trusts were the negative performers. Tesla is getting... Show More
Bond-king Bill Gross labelled global central banks’ $12 Trillion balance sheets as ‘methadone’ for investors, as they continue to crave debt and low rates. Without it, he says the US economy would sink into recession. “A 2.45%, 10-year U.S. Treasury rests at 2.45% because the ECB and BOJ are buying... Show More
