equities

Chart Of The Week: Loan Officers Give a Green Light for Stocks

Callum Thomas

This week it's the Fed's bank loan officer survey and the S&P500. The US Federal Reserves's loan officer survey provides insight into bank lending standards, and can give an important cross check against the markets. So much so, that you could easily call this chart the bear market warning indicator.... Show More

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Value still exists in Shell, despite threat of EVs

Peter Wilmshurst

Royal Dutch Shell’s valuations make its stock look very tempting despite concerns over electric cars taking over. Show More

Chart Of The Week: REITs, GICS Changes, and Tech

Callum Thomas

This week it's a chart of US REIT ETF Assets Under Management, but basically as a prompt to talk about some previous and upcoming changes to the ubiquitous GICS system. The previous change was implemented in September 2016 and saw the new Real Estate sector split out from financials. Sure... Show More

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Is it time to sell US equities and bonds?

Christopher Joye

In my AFR column I reflect on Xi Jinping's masterful manipulation of Donald Trump and why a profound change in global hedging costs could radically reduce the returns Australian investors receive when allocating to US equities and US bonds (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs... Show More

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Investors must tread carefully

Simon Doyle

On the back of the worst March quarter since 2008, indicators show the end of the current cycle is in sight. Trump’s jostle with China is more of a concern than his ‘war of Tweets’ with North Korea, and coupled with the inability of investors to rely on central bank... Show More

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Buy Fear and Sell Greed

Christopher Joye

In my AFR column I argue that Donald Trump's "tape bombs" are the tail wagging the global financial market dog right now, and this volatility begets opportunity (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can click here for direct access). Excerpt enclosed: Show More

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Chaos Creates Opportunities for Bonds and Hybrids

Christopher Joye

Most investors have polarised portfolios bifurcated between cash deposits and equities. Few appreciate that these two very different securities span a rich corporate capital structure that allows for a much more continuous distribution of risk and return experiences. Show More

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Chart Of The Week: Equity Risk Premiums

Callum Thomas

This week the "Chart of the Week" shows the equity risk premium across a couple of key developed economy stockmarkets. The equity risk premium provides a unique perspective on valuation, which brings in not just what's going on with absolute valuations, but also reflects the opportunity cost or trade-off vs... Show More

equities asset allocation erp UK equities Developed Markets .

Running to Stand Still

Etienne Alexiou

On the 9th March 1987 U2 released the Joshua Tree, the fastest selling British Album of all time that went on to sell over 25 million copies. Joshua Tree is still acclaimed as one of the greatest albums of all time. Interestingly Bono considered pulling the album prior to its... Show More

He’s going the distance, he’s going for speed

Brett Gillespie

Have you ever pushed the limit? Sure you have, just that little bit further, just that little bit faster. It’s the secret to success. But also sometimes disaster… Perhaps nowhere is breaking that limit as obvious as on a race track. Yet how many of us, as amateurs, love to... Show More

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Why Rate Rises Will Crush All Asset Prices

Christopher Joye

In my AFR column I explain how we faded the recent equities shock picking up $159m of cheap assets but why in the longer-term equities and property are likely to be subject to more serious corrections as higher wages growth and inflation inevitably become the dominant investment dynamic, forcing discount... Show More

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Right into the danger zone...

Brett Gillespie

It was February 4th, 1994, and I was on a plane to LA from Sydney. I was treating myself to 4-week holiday skiing in Aspen and then on to New York; 1993 had been a good year. Initially when my boss, Richard Farleigh, had resigned 10 months earlier I wasn’t... Show More

UBS: Now is not the time to reduce exposure

Alex Cowie

Mark Haefele, the Global Chief Investment Officer at UBS penned a short note on the US market’s drastic pullback, calling for calm and suggesting it is not time to reduce exposure, not unless rates or inflation keep rising. Here’s his comment in full: Show More

equities inflation bonds dollar yields correction

Resource stocks haven't run their race yet

Naheed Rahman

Over the past quarter, much of the small-cap index outperformance over large caps has been due to the excellent returns of small resource companies. Given their cyclical nature, is that a reason to look elsewhere? The following note makes it clear that we think not. Show More

The sky is not falling, but storm clouds are brewing

Jason Teh

The sky is not falling was the message in September 2017. Our message was that the overall market did not show excessive valuations, which generally is a precursor to stock market corrections. However, our market outlook dimmed due to recent ‘risk-on’ rally, where most of the year’s return was delivered... Show More

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Contagion Risk in Big Bond Bubble

Christopher Joye

As we roll into another new year, in the AFR I ask: "Is the fixed-rate government bond market – to be distinguished from floating-rate securities – in the mother-of-all bubbles? Very likely. Has it burst? Maybe, although the evidence is not persuasive. As it normalises, will it cause mayhem in... Show More

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Just how did BHP get it so wrong?

Sam Dyson

Mining 101: a good mining company makes money at the low end of a steep cost-curve. This is BHP’s strategy and it is working wonders in iron ore. However, in 2011 BHP forgot this simple rule. Deal hungry and with cash flow burning a hole in the pocket after two... Show More

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High Returns, Low Volatility – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Jonathan Rochford

Economic news was strong in October, led by US Q3 GDP coming at an annualised rate of 3.0%. Quarterly earnings and sales for S&P 500 companies are beating estimates by more than usual. One standout was bellwether stock Caterpillar, which after four years of declining revenue has seen sales up... Show More

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Q4 Investment Outlook: Braver for longer…

Fidelity International

How long can the good times roll? The second-longest yet arguably most-hated bull market in post-war history just grinds on and on, while investors get more worried by the day. Valuations in some areas are certainly becoming stretched, but overall they remain some way off the peaks seen in 2000.... Show More

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Telstra's Trump moment

Daniel Mueller

Prior to Telstra's FY17 result, media articles abounded speculating the company was going to announce the securitisation of its recurring NBN payments. The media cited various analyst reports that a securitisation of up to $18 billion was about to create a capital management bonanza for shareholders. Show More