In the latest Compexity Premia podcast we cover recent Livewire articles and: debate whether the RBA is going to blow the housing bubble back up with interest rate cuts; discuss new RBA research that blames the central bank for the rapid house price growth between 2012-2017 (contrary to what the... Show More
In this new research paper, members of the quantitative research and portfolio management teams at Coolabah Capital Investments (CCI) present new evidence on whether the claimed alpha and beta benefits of ESG filters in both the global equities and corporate bond markets exist. You can download a full copy of... Show More
According to the latest edition of the Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index (Index), global dividends finished 2018 at a new record high, as a strong fourth quarter shrugged off rising volatility in global financial markets. Show More
If you found that last few months of 2018 a bit testing on your nerves, I can assure you that you’re not alone. It seems to have taken equity investors a few extra weeks to get their feet back under the desks after a bruising few months. Show More
Reading through Patrick Poke’s article yesterday analysing Seth Klarman’s annual letter for Baupost Group ("Klarman: A Buying Opportunity"), a particular passage stood out. Unsurprisingly, not least because of our history in championing the strategy, the passage focused on reducing correlation to broader equity markets. Show More
In my column today I argue that to have any hope of divining the prospects for 2019, one has to first solve the Rubik’s Cube that was 2018 in which the most overvalued asset-class on the planet, government bonds, reigned as king—trumping cash—despite this column’s contrarian forecast of four Fed... Show More
I distinctly remember one investor telling me how lonely he felt undertaking the task of running his super. Alone with lots of information and no one to speak with or use as a sounding board. I’d never really thought about it until this man described the challenges of making important... Show More
2017 was a great year for well diversified investors – returns were solid (balanced super funds returned around 10%) and volatility was low. So optimism was high going into 2018 but it turned out to be anything but great for investors who saw poor returns (average balanced super funds look... Show More
We believe there are three key themes that will persist in 2019; divergence, disruption and debt-overhang. Invesco's Chief Global Market Strategist, Kristina Hooper, along with Arnab Das explore these themes here - and their implications for markets. Show More
The last two weeks have been at odds with our expectations – the market has gone into capitulation mode judging by price action and record outflows. The ‘late cycle’ fears have now rolled through to all sectors; the S&P 500 is off 13.1% since its highs in mid-September (as at... Show More
Today I write (very short excerpt only): "Amidst the daily market chaos we can state a few things with certainty. First, the volatility of volatility (or the volatility of the VIX index in the US) is at a record high as investors struggle to figure out where fair value for... Show More
One of our best “short” (as opposed to “long”) ideas this year has been to bet that the credit spreads on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) would widen—reducing their price—as a function of the toxic combination of falling house prices, rising defaults, surging supply and plummeting home loan prepayment rates. (We... Show More
As a provider of asset allocation advice to fund managers and advisors, Brad Matthews provides an expert view of the big picture for each asset class. Weeks before 'Red October', Brad gave Livewire readers an explicit early warning in his wire offering ‘Three reasons to lighten your equity exposure'. Show More
Here I argue that anyone who tells you they know what's driving markets right now is lying or fooling themselves, which begets opportunity (click on that link to read the full column or AFR subs can click here). Excerpts enclosed: Show More
The current Fed rate hikes, combined with efforts to shrink its balance sheet, represent the first sustained tightening in US monetary conditions, and therefore much of the developed world, for at least 30 years. So what does this mean for investors and how should they change their investment strategy to... Show More
Today I review research that shows if Labor eliminates negative gearing and increases capital gains tax by 50%, national house prices could fall 9-12% on top of the current declines; parse new analysis from CoreLogic highlighting a spike in the share of apartment owners realising losses when they sell their... Show More
Today I bust a bunch of big myths relevant to the current price action: specifically, I show why bonds are, contrary to popular belief, a terrible equities hedge (the oft-mooted negative correlation is incredibly unreliable and often positive); why the popular low-rates-for-long meme is completely bogus; why you should not... Show More
Overnight falls of 3.2% for the DOW (3.30% for S&P, 4.40% NASDAQ) are reminiscent of January-February 2018, and just like then it feels very unpleasant. However as always perspective is required when trying to ascertain whether this is a transitionary correction or the start of something more sinister. Show More
In the rough and tumble of investment markets its very easy to get distracted: by talk of the next best thing that will make you rich, by the ever-present predictions of an imminent crash, by the worry list that constantly surrounds investment markets relating to growth, profits, interest rates, politics,... Show More
In the AFR today I argue that we are not "late-cycle" as so many commonly claim, but rather mid-cycle, which has profound ramifications for how one should optimally allocate capital (AFR subs can click here). Brief excerpt: Show More
