Federal Reserve

Latest news and analysis on Federal Reserve

Macro

Cash flows and the effectiveness of monetary policy

Higher interest rates have the same estimated effect on inflation in Australia, the euro area, and the USA.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Falling commercial real estate prices

Commercial property prices have fallen sharply in the US and Europe
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

How to position portfolios as the Fed presses pause

The Fed is approaching the end of its rate hike cycle. Cuts are more likely than not next year. This is a backdrop that favours bonds.
Isaac Poole
Ascalon Capital
Macro

Scary Septembers for stocks, money supply and world inflation

As we move into the Northern Hemisphere autumn, this week’s charts begin with a visualisation of stocks in September
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Macro

Jackson Hole Preview: Will a hawkish Powell trample markets?

Will Powell unleash another hawkish spiel about how the Fed must 'keep at it until the job is done'?
Kerry Sun
Livewire Markets
Macro

US resilience helped by loose fiscal policy

The US budget is still deep in the red this far into the economic recovery.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Commodity correlation, currency effects, Bitcoin rallies and the Fed

This week’s charts begin with a candlestick that shows how the current foreign-exchange volatility
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Macro

US wages growth picks up over the past few months

The resilience of wages growth likely reinforces the Fed's concern that it may take longer for core inflation to return to the 2% target.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Charts of the week: China’s weak borrowing, central bank challenges, natural disasters

Chinese households avoid borrowing, Fed dot plot tightens, UK inflation crunch, OECD producer prices fall while CPI lags and more.
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Macro

Confidence in central banks takes a hit

Credibility with the public reduces the economic cost of controlling inflation
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Tech stocks rally, hard and soft landings, and past Fed pauses

This week’s charts begin by revisiting our table of winners and losers in the S&P 500
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Macro

Stock scenarios and considering the peak Fed rate

This week’s charts start with three visualisations focused on equities.
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Macro

The Fed is a comedy act

Jay Powell says the US banking system is 'sound and resilient' as regional banks melt down. If it wasn't so serious, it would be hilarious.
Greg Canavan
Fat Tail Investment Research
Education

Does the RBA’s “negative equity” matter?

It admits it owes more than it owns, and if it were a company it’d be bankrupt, but insists this doesn’t matter. I’m sceptical.
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Macro

Can equities have a soft landing while the economy goes into recession?

The Federal Reserve's own economists now believe a mild recession is inevitable stateside. Equity traders disagree.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

A tight US labour market despite higher interest rates

The US labour market is past its peak, but still remains very tight despite higher interest rates.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Charts of the Week - The Powell spread, money market inflows and trouble in Sweden

This week’s charts begin with bearish trends
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Macro

Charts of the Week - The Fed balance sheet grows, AT1s turn risky, and the outlook for real estate

This week’s charts address the repercussions of banking crises on both sides of the Atlantic
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Macro

Charts of the Week - Inverted curves, the SVB effect, and pessimistic Britain

This week’s charts revisit the evolution of Fed funds futures as the US central bank heads into a potentially pivotal meeting
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Asset Allocation

Lazard's Temple: US stocks could fall 15% even without a recession

Lazard's Chief Market Strategist argues valuations are too high and markets are too optimistic, with a recession likely in H2 2023.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
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