Federal Reserve

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.

Interest rate cuts are being delayed, a pattern repeated many times this year.

A policy rule still points to a slow/shallow rate cut cycle in the US, steady rate cuts in the EA, and that the RBA should hiked a bit more.

The Fed is sidelined on rates for some time as it watches how inflation evolves after an unexpected surge in Q1.

Advertised wages growth is at/near pre-COVID levels in the US & EA, while still-high growth in AUS & NZ should improve this year.

The US economy stands out, with key measures of activity back in line with their pre-COVID trends, although Australia is not far behind.

The Fed is going to cut rates, but slowing growth means it may not be the time to be chasing equity returns.

Any delay in achieving the 2% inflation target points to interest rates staying high for longer

Measures of new rents are giving conflicting signals on the outlook for housing costs, which are a key driver of inflation.

CIO Dan Ivascyn discusses the benefits of locking in today’s elevated bond yields ahead of potential rates cuts around the globe.