German equities recovered some ground early on Monday as the government coalition between Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Germany’s Social Democratic (SPD) party was approved by SPD members over the weekend. Show More
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Sunday’s (March 4) Italian election appears to have resulted in a hung parliament as widely expected. However, centrist parties lost ground and populist parties made more gains than polls had generally predicted. Show More
Angela Merkel has been re-elected German Chancellor for a fourth term. A strong domestic economy (record low unemployment) and high standards of living have understandably contributed to Germans’ satisfaction with the current state of affairs, and wanting more of the same. Show More
Just how big or widespread this Volkswagen (VOW) scandal will be is still under scrutiny...What we do know is that based on the latest data we have, German auto producers are one of the least preferred in our autos coverage (Chart 1).. Volume growth looks to have tapered off and... Show More
Last month on the 26th and 21st of May, I blogged about the turning points in our inflation data. Show More
Quartz reports that the Eurozone’s four largest economies—France, Germany, Italy, and Spain—all registered growth at the same time for the first time since 2010. http://qz.com/403923/for-the-first-time-in-five-years-the-euro-zones-largest-economies-are-all-growing-at-the-same-time/ Show More
Bloomberg reports there are five key drivers of the recent bond market sell off (illustrating each with a chart). 1) The oil market – bonds were a favourite place to benefit from oil’s collapse. 2) Inflation – “Inflation in the euro zone stopped falling last month after going negative at... Show More
So said Donald Rumsfeld in a US DoD briefing in 2002. Show More
Why are Mario Draghi and the ECB now in denial about a risky German bond bubble? Late last week, the German 10-year bond suffered what’s being described as its ‘Freaky Friday’ when the yield fell to just 0.051 per cent. It was freaky because as Greece teetered on the brink... Show More
Will Greece leave the ECB? Greece and the ECB are like a married couple on the verge of divorce but staying together because neither can afford to leave the marital home. Greek finance minister Yaroufakis ended a European 'tour' with a meeting with his German counterpart Schaeuble, and no agreement... Show More
Could frugal Germans plunge Europe into recession and trigger another market sell-off? We have been warning that major risks remain in Europe. Many local investors may think they are abstract concerns. But last week's ASX volatility highlighted how the risks in Europe can rock markets and send shockwaves down to... Show More
Fund manager John Abernethy says RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle was right to warn investors that there are a lot of negatives around that are already spilling from bond to equity markets. Abernethy suggests that the bond market is being perverted by central banks so that the pricing is giving us... Show More
The market's so complacent, I want to scream: Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen urges traders and investors to take a serious reality check, pointing out markets have ignored geopolitical risks, ignored the significant slowdown in European growth and at the same... Show More
Growth in Eurozone looks like a 'total loss' for 2014: Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank With Eurozone GDP figures out on Thursday, Saxo Bank Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen says the signs aren't good. While predicting a quarterly growth figure of 0.1%, Jakobsen warns there is also a... Show More
Sporting Trends - Germany has just won their 4th world cup after waiting for 24 years since their 3rd world cup. Brazil and Italy are the only coutries to have won more than 3 world cups and both teams took 24 years between their 3rd and 4th world cup. The... Show More
Global stocks on the rise, but only just - investment outlook from Saxo Private Bank CIO Teis Knuthsen Global equities rose by 0.7 per cent in April, ending a choppy month with a small gain. Despite the MSCI World Index rising to an all-time high at the beginning of this month,... Show More
Gold prices edged toward USD $1245 overnight, after falling as low as USD $1235 in a fairly uneventful Thanksgiving Thursday. Only country specific economic data of note was from Germany, where unemployment rose by 10k (rate unchanged), and CPI picked up slightly too. Whilst news from Germany was OK, private... Show More
The German Economy is hitting its straps. Markit's preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which tracks growth in the manufacturing and services sectors and covers more than two-thirds of the economy, rose to 54.3 in November from 53.2 the previous month. November's survey suggests that the German economy has built... Show More
George Soros: The eurozone status quo is neither tolerable nor stable. Mainstream economists would call it an inferior equilibrium; I call it a nightmare - one that is inflicting tremendous pain and suffering that could be easily avoided if the misconceptions and taboos that sustain it were dispelled. The problem... Show More