government debt

The disastrous overreaction to Covid 19 by Australian Governments will leave Australia worse off on health and economic grounds for decades

Our guest blogger examines sovereign default risks.

Analysis of its monthly financial statements since 2005 uncovers trends that commentaries about its annual budget downplay or overlook.

Probably not – but high and rising debt will boost CPI and interest rates, and stifle GDP growth and investors’ returns.

The exponential rise of debt is stifling its economic growth. It thus takes ever more dollars of debt to generate an extra $1 of GDP.

Our research indicates that issuance of state government debt is likely to be between $8bn and $16bn lower than the market expects in FY2023 (or 2022-23 in budget...

The NSW budget shrugged off omicron, almost returning to balance in January in trend terms. The deficit is likely to beat the government's full-year forecast by about...

By now it is obvious that Australia’s chosen pathway to managing Covid and ending lockdowns requires a greater uptake of vaccinations. The odds of dying from the...

One of the most annoying and destructive narratives from mainstream economists in the last decade has been that government debt doesn’t matter. It’s commonly trotted...

If 2020 was a wild year for equities, 2021 has been just as exciting for fixed income investors. In February, a sharp rise in bond yields and inflation expectations...

The famous 1955 quote by then US Federal Reserve Chairman William McChesney Martin was that “The Federal Reserve… is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered...

Economic cycle background Ray Dalio has a series of explanatory videos that talk about debt cycles and in particular the contrast between a short debt cycle and a long...

Last Tuesday’s RBA interest rate cut and accompanying statement didn’t bode well for investors that rely on income producing assets such as bonds. Investors need to...

Whilst I’m generally cynical about politicians, their creativity in finding ways to blame others for what are obviously their problems shows they do have intelligence,...

In June 2017 Argentina sold US$2.75 billion of 100 year bonds and I wrote then that “Argentina is unlikely to get through a decade without defaulting let alone 100...

Central banks globally have clearly been buying a lot of government bonds over the last decade. But just how much the world’s central banking powers own of their own...

Why do we pay taxes? It is a simple question with a seemingly simple answer. Most would agree that taxes obviously need to be paid so that the government can pay for...

It’s an issue that has passed under the radar here in Australia but it is of great political, economic, legal and credit risk interest. It’s the argument over whether...

Over recent weeks the trade war ebbed and flowed, Hong Kong erupted in more protests, both the UK and Germany teetered on recession, New Zealand’s central bank stunned...

The recent debate over austerity has been profoundly one sided. Articles by Paul Krugman, Robert Skidelsky and Ryan Cooper have taken on a victory lap tone for the...