labour market

May jobs data reveals hidden strength: more hours worked, more pressure on the RBA. We’re positioned for yield curve flattening.

The unemployment rate is one of the most scrutinised economic indicators, but it has its limits—and being aware of them can be useful.

The public sector has accounted for all the growth in GDP over the past year and made the largest contribution to strong jobs growth.

Could the economy be dodging a recession? New data suggests a softer outcome might be on the horizon

Global equity markets have continued to perform strongly in December (~3%) after November’s sharp advance higher.

Recently good news has been bad news. Why is this, and are we about to enter into a new cycle where good news becomes good news again?

Our economist models healthy US employment print using Indicio.

We pushed back our recession call to the end of 2023 or first quarter of 2024, despite our US recession probability model remaining high.

Following the re-opening of Australia’s border earlier this year, net migration has surged and the population is again growing strongly, almost back at pre-pandemic...

The demand for labour is strong, as reflected in job vacancies reaching their highest share of the workforce in half a century. The supply of labour has picked up,...

The Delta outbreak has seen a big decline in hours worked, a fall in employment and a lower unemployment rate. The Delta outbreak has seen a large hit to activity in...

We recently had three of Australia’s leading fixed income managers visit the Melbourne office, Charlie Jamieson from Jamieson Coote Bonds, Jay Sivapalan at Janus...

Our latest extensive trip across the US (California, Arizona, Illinois, Washington, New York, Florida, Washington DC) highlighted the strength of the domestic labour...