Ronald Temple

Since the beginning of the year, the Trump administration has announced a series of increasingly aggressive trade policies. While much remains uncertain about the future direction of these policies, we believe the risk of further escalation is high and that a sustained move toward protectionism could derail economic growth. Show More

Callum Thomas

In the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report we looked at some surprising trends in global trade growth. I say surprising not because the improvement in global trade took me by surprise - our leading indicators clearly flagged it last year (when most people were very bearish on... Show More

Callum Thomas

The latest round of manufacturing PMIs confirm the signal previously flagged in the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes that 2017 could see an upturn in global trade growth. If this does happen it will be against most people's expectations as political risks from... Show More