A Global Trade Rebound in 2017?
The latest round of manufacturing PMIs confirm the signal previously flagged in the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes (VIEW LINK) that 2017 could see an upturn in global trade growth. If this does happen it will be against most people's expectations as political risks from populist protectionism remain front of mind, and with organisations such as the OECD and IMF writing thought pieces on why global trade growth is so low and set to remain dismal. I could be wrong in my conclusion, but when I see a chart like this and when the conclusion is contrary to popular opinion I get a warm fuzzy feeling inside. The main "so-what" from such an outcome will be reinforcement of the "synchronized global upturn" which means higher bond yields, and likely better growth prospects and equity performance by economies which rely on trade such as South Korea, Taiwan, et al. Certainly one to keep an eye on in 2017.