At the start of each year, we poll our readers for their best stock idea as part of our Outlook Survey. With just one quarter to go, it’s time to check in to see which calls are leading, and hear what our contributors are saying about them. Show More
With the quarter drawing to a close, it’s time for our first check up on the performance of Livewire readers’ stock ideas from our 2017 outlook survey. This table highlights the ten leaders, as well as the ten laggards. You can access the spreadsheet for all 263 stocks below. The... Show More
This time last year copper was in serious trouble - it had just hit its lowest level since 2009. What followed was a period of consolidation until the US presidential election in November, when prices lifted to 18-month highs on the back of Donald Trump's victory - and bullishness about... Show More
Last week we blogged on our results from the June 2016 forecasts. A ho-hum result at best with the hit rate about the same as a coin flip! This week we outline our forecasts for the coming half. We've tried (but not always succeeded) in using this bloggers guide to... Show More
There's further encouraging news for the outlook for industrial metals in 2017. The World Bank in its just-released January 2017 Commodity Markets Outlook is forecasting strong gains for industrial commodities such as energy and metals during 2017, due to tightening supply and strengthening demand. The Bank has raised its metals... Show More
Each half, we provide a series of “anti-forecasts” for what will NOT happen over this period. Discover whether our July 2016 calls ended up being right. Next week, we will publish our forecasts for the coming six months. http://www.morphicasset.com/blog/scorecard-anti-forecasts-dec-16/?woo_source=Livewire/ Show More
Most pundits are universal in viewing an interest rate increase as negative for gold. As gold is a non-yielding asset, this therefore is negative for gold - or so the narrative goes. The key however is not rising interest rates per se, but the 'real' interest rate - that is,... Show More
As is often the case our view is definitely against the majority. As I type economies are improving and the investment world is getting more upbeat about the market’s prospects. We believe more upside is likely to play out, however, we expect this to be a precursor to a deeper... Show More
After a tumultuous 2016, the share market has had a solid start to the new year prolonging the so-called ‘Trump Rally’ which has seen Australian equities rally more than 10.0% from their intraday lows on 9 November when Trump was elected. With the year now underway and reporting season around... Show More
2016 again showed how difficult it is to predict equity market returns over time periods as short as 12 months. After a dramatic fall at the start of the year, the Australian equity market went on to produce its best annual return since 2013 and its fifth consecutive year of... Show More
Most commodities rose solidly (even strongly) during 2016, but uranium missed the party badly – it fell by 41% and hit a 12-year low of $20/lb during November. What a far cry from its peak of $137/lb in mid-2007, when oil hit $150 a barrel and most commodities enjoyed a... Show More
A lot has changed in the commodity space over the past 12 months. For starters the London Metal Exchange (LME) index of prices fell to 2,049 during January 2016, but it’s since recovered strongly to 2,799 (graphic 1). This appears to reflect a very significant situation – the worst seems... Show More
It’s that time of the year – making the calls for the year ahead for the economy and financial markets. Key themes for the year include; ongoing sluggish growth in Australia with house prices set to weaken markedly, possibly fall. US (and most global) stock markets to fall, perhaps quite... Show More
2016 played host to a significant resource sector rejuvenation – and all indications are that this momentum will be maintained into 2017. This is reflected in the Australian Small Resources Index graph below, which rose by 70% during 2016. Not surprisingly this was driven by a dramatic performance by commodities... Show More
CBA China and Asia Economist, Wei Li takes a look at the outlook for economic growth in China, including home prices, fixed asset investment and exports For more forecasts for the year ahead, visit https://www.commsec.com.au/market-news/year-ahead.html Show More
CBA Mining & Energy Commodities Strategist, Vivek Dhar provides his outlook for commodity prices, including iron ore & nickel For more 2017 forecasts, visit https://www.commsec.com.au/market-news/year-ahead.html Show More
The latest round of manufacturing PMIs confirm the signal previously flagged in the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes http://www.topdowncharts.com/2016-special-edition that 2017 could see an upturn in global trade growth. If this does happen it will be against most people's expectations as political risks from... Show More
CommSec Chief Economist Craig James takes a look at the outlook for the Australian share market which is forecast to end 2017 at around 6,000 points For more 2017 forecasts, visit https://www.commsec.com.au/market-news/year-ahead.html Show More
CommSec Senior Economist Savanth Sebastian takes a look at the outlook for economic growth, employment and interest rates for the year ahead For more forecasts for 2017, including oil and iron ore prices, visit https://www.commsec.com.au/market-news/year-ahead.html Show More
Mark Twain once said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Show More