As is often the case our view is definitely against the majority. As I type economies are improving and the investment world is getting more upbeat about the market’s prospects. We believe more upside is likely to play out, however, we expect this to be a precursor to a deeper correction, most likely over the next two years that will see the market down ~25%. A big call in some respects but when we consider the advance in the ASX200 from the GFC lows is ~80%, and ~250% in the US, it appears a less challenging forecast.
The world has now enjoyed 8 years of exceptionally lose monetary policy - low rates, bond buying programs artificially reducing the cost of capital. Now for the first time since the 1980's we think interest rates are headed higher globally. Our 2017 strategy note explains our position on commodities, rates, property and some of the major sectors on the ASX.