The tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China is ramping up, with neither country showing signs of backing down. This is a major global issue, and it looks like it’s getting worse before it gets better. Show More
imports
The latest hard data on global trade activity show a picture of volumes returning to trend growth. The chart below shows global container throughput activity and you can see a clear dip down in 2015/16: a sort of mini-recession or near-miss global recession as I've explained it previously. In any... Show More
The International Monetary Fund has built a reputation as an unbiased forecaster. The IMF has a pretty optimistic outlook for the Australian budget for the next couple of years. They believe that the Australian budget deficit will decline from 2.7% of GDP in calendar 2016 to 2.2% of GDP in... Show More
In the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report we looked at some surprising trends in global trade growth. I say surprising not because the improvement in global trade took me by surprise - our leading indicators clearly flagged it last year (when most people were very bearish on... Show More
The latest round of manufacturing PMIs confirm the signal previously flagged in the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes http://www.topdowncharts.com/2016-special-edition that 2017 could see an upturn in global trade growth. If this does happen it will be against most people's expectations as political risks from... Show More
