Macro
Last month we published our take on one of the biggest economic discussions today – Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).Most of the public debate to date has centred around the role of government: that is, deficits, the causes of inflation, and implications for public policy. As we stated last... Show More
Asset Allocation
As the valuation gap between the US and the rest of the world narrows, we see value opportunities outside the US. Show More
The global economy is demonstrating strong, synchronised growth; annualised for the third quarter of ‘17 the US is showing 4.1%, Europe at 2.5%, China at 6.8%, and even the UK, having blown half its own foot off with Brexit, has the lowest unemployment rate in 40 years at 4.5%. The... Show More
In the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report we looked at some surprising trends in global trade growth. I say surprising not because the improvement in global trade took me by surprise - our leading indicators clearly flagged it last year (when most people were very bearish on... Show More
Just wanted to quickly share this chart - it shows consumer sentiment across developed and emerging economies (GDP weighted) using the Reuters/Ipsos Consumer Sentiment Indexes. The chart (from my latest report) shows a clear trend towards new highs in consumer confidence for developed economies, and while emerging markets stumbled in... Show More
The latest round of manufacturing PMIs confirm the signal previously flagged in the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes http://www.topdowncharts.com/2016-special-edition that 2017 could see an upturn in global trade growth. If this does happen it will be against most people's expectations as political risks from... Show More
The first blog on the road was from Texas. The second week looks at San Francisco, a city arguably at the peak of its power with money and power flowing to the many new technology stocks based there. We review some of the interesting themes that emerged from the Merrill... Show More
Approximately a year ago Nathan Lim, Portfolio Manager at Australian Ethical wrote a wire about the disconnect in the US between valuations and earnings, “I guess what surprised us is that we were expecting that slowness in the US economy to translate into underperformance in the stock market, but what... Show More