A week after the fanfare of the 2018/19 Budget, we can soberly review some of the information and data that supports its projections. In the body of the Budget papers are a wealth of tables and charts that contain important observations and insights into the Australian economy. We scan through... Show More
The prospect of a trade war has become more significant again. While China may fare worse than the US in this scenario, there are some broader implications that could enhance China's power on the global stage, not least via the One Belt One Road initiative. Here I discuss this and... Show More
The latest hard data on global trade activity show a picture of volumes returning to trend growth. The chart below shows global container throughput activity and you can see a clear dip down in 2015/16: a sort of mini-recession or near-miss global recession as I've explained it previously. In any... Show More
The International Monetary Fund has built a reputation as an unbiased forecaster. The IMF has a pretty optimistic outlook for the Australian budget for the next couple of years. They believe that the Australian budget deficit will decline from 2.7% of GDP in calendar 2016 to 2.2% of GDP in... Show More
In the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report we looked at some surprising trends in global trade growth. I say surprising not because the improvement in global trade took me by surprise - our leading indicators clearly flagged it last year (when most people were very bearish on... Show More
Remember the old "Li Keqiang Index"? It comprised 3 data series and served as an alternative measure for economic activity vs the dubious official GDP statistics. One of those 3 is pictured below (the others are power consumption and loan growth). As highlighted in the latest edition of the Weekly... Show More
The latest round of manufacturing PMIs confirm the signal previously flagged in the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes http://www.topdowncharts.com/2016-special-edition that 2017 could see an upturn in global trade growth. If this does happen it will be against most people's expectations as political risks from... Show More
The 5% first half decline in the US dollar has helped improve the export outlook for US manufacturers (and the sales prospects for S&P 500 companies starting to report June quarter earnings this week). US corporate earnings stalled through 2015 as sales contracted and companies ran out of cost containment... Show More
9 charts looking at some significant economic from last week. Three that stand out to me were 1) India's economy slipping into deflation (more here: http://goo.gl/GpHIwF) 2) The Japanese economy looks to have broken out of recession 3) The lower Yen continues to fuel a trend in export growth for... Show More
On the US/Macro setting and its effect on Australian markets Alex Leyland from Leyland Private Asset Management says, Don't forget that the US are the engine room of the global economy and they have always found ways to re-invent themselves. The US is 25% of GDP, if they start doing... Show More