global trade

Clime Asset Management

North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un, has confirmed that the Democratic People's Republic now has thermonuclear capabilities after testing it's newly developed hydrogen bomb at the country's nuclear test site. Aside from obvious political, military and environmental implications, this could have considerable economic ramifications, especially for Australia should it get caught... Show More

Callum Thomas

The latest hard data on global trade activity show a picture of volumes returning to trend growth. The chart below shows global container throughput activity and you can see a clear dip down in 2015/16: a sort of mini-recession or near-miss global recession as I've explained it previously. In any... Show More

Patrik Sjöblom

Since the day before the US Presidential Elections on 8 November 2016 until 31 March 2017, MSCI World Industrials has returned 12.8% in AUD-terms, outperforming MSCI World by 0.9ppt. Analysing stocks and sub sectors within Industrials, we conclude that this has not been a ‘junk rally’ driven by the low-profitability... Show More

Callum Thomas

In the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report we looked at some surprising trends in global trade growth. I say surprising not because the improvement in global trade took me by surprise - our leading indicators clearly flagged it last year (when most people were very bearish on... Show More

Callum Thomas

The latest round of manufacturing PMIs confirm the signal previously flagged in the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes http://www.topdowncharts.com/2016-special-edition that 2017 could see an upturn in global trade growth. If this does happen it will be against most people's expectations as political risks from... Show More