global economy

Macro
Callum Thomas

Here's some of the standout charts on my radar. I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Hope you enjoy them as much as I do.1. Manufacturing PMIs -- USA vs the World: Well... Show More

Peter Wilmshurst

US companies had a strong run in earnings and revenue growth during 2018, with numbers largely surprising on the upside. A run like that looks unlikely in 2019, as the benefits of substantial fiscal stimulus from US tax cuts and greater public spending wane. US companies are already signalling that... Show More

Callum Thomas

The latest hard data on global trade activity show a picture of volumes returning to trend growth. The chart below shows global container throughput activity and you can see a clear dip down in 2015/16: a sort of mini-recession or near-miss global recession as I've explained it previously. In any... Show More

Callum Thomas

The July round of flash manufacturing PMIs showed a slight but important rebound in the "global flash manufacturing PMI" (an indicator I put together based on the Markit readings). The global flash reading was up +0.4pts to 54.3 - the highest since February this year. While the move is not... Show More

Callum Thomas

In the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report we looked at some surprising trends in global trade growth. I say surprising not because the improvement in global trade took me by surprise - our leading indicators clearly flagged it last year (when most people were very bearish on... Show More

Callum Thomas

Just wanted to quickly share this chart - it shows consumer sentiment across developed and emerging economies (GDP weighted) using the Reuters/Ipsos Consumer Sentiment Indexes. The chart (from my latest report) shows a clear trend towards new highs in consumer confidence for developed economies, and while emerging markets stumbled in... Show More

Callum Thomas

In this video I look at the latest data out of China, which shows an economic rebound gathering steam. I talk through how they got there, what's next, the implications, and risks to the outlook: Show More

Callum Thomas

I wanted to highlight this chart because the latest data basically makes it start to look like it's going against my previous thinking. The "flash global manufacturing PMI" which is an indicator I put together based on the flash readings of the Europe, US, and Japan manufacturing PMIs has weakened... Show More