global economy

Peter Wilmshurst

US companies had a strong run in earnings and revenue growth during 2018, with numbers largely surprising on the upside. A run like that looks unlikely in 2019, as the benefits of substantial fiscal stimulus from US tax cuts and greater public spending wane. US companies are already signalling that... Show More

Callum Thomas

In the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report we looked at some surprising trends in global trade growth. I say surprising not because the improvement in global trade took me by surprise - our leading indicators clearly flagged it last year (when most people were very bearish on... Show More

Callum Thomas

Just wanted to quickly share this chart - it shows consumer sentiment across developed and emerging economies (GDP weighted) using the Reuters/Ipsos Consumer Sentiment Indexes. The chart (from my latest report) shows a clear trend towards new highs in consumer confidence for developed economies, and while emerging markets stumbled in... Show More

Callum Thomas

I wanted to highlight this chart because the latest data basically makes it start to look like it's going against my previous thinking. The "flash global manufacturing PMI" which is an indicator I put together based on the flash readings of the Europe, US, and Japan manufacturing PMIs has weakened... Show More

PM Capital

The reaction of the markets was instructive on the day of the election results. Once the outcome was known, Asian and European markets placed their bets and markets sold off. By the end of the following day’s US trading, they were proved to be 100% incorrect. So even with a... Show More

Callum Thomas

The latest round of manufacturing PMIs confirm the signal previously flagged in the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes http://www.topdowncharts.com/2016-special-edition that 2017 could see an upturn in global trade growth. If this does happen it will be against most people's expectations as political risks from... Show More

AMP Capital

What started in January as mainly China-based worries has clearly broadened back out to concerns about global growth. At its core, there are five fault lines running through the global economy. The first is the malaise in emerging markets that began earlier this decade, with Brazil and Russia in recession.... Show More

Livewire News

After several years of moderate but sustained worldwide GDP growth, the spectre of a global recession in 2016 can no longer be completely discounted. Brazil and Russia are already suffering from eviscerating economic down-turns and the growth rates of many other emerging economies, including China, have subsided to well below... Show More

Fidelity International

The trials of China and other emerging countries on top of the unresolved eurozone debt crisis, Japan’s inability to revive itself and the Federal Reserve’s likely imminent rate increase are fanning talk the world economy is headed for recession. The underlying concern is that policymakers can’t combat any slump as... Show More