reserve bank of australia

Latest news and analysis on reserve bank of australia

Macro

Time for a victory lap on inflation?

Rate cut priced in, but our models show inflation could remain near the top of the RBA’s target band.
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Education

Why “faster and deeper” rate cuts likely wouldn’t lift shares

Bulls claim they would, but history contradicts them: when valuations are extended, sharply lower rates crush rather than boost stocks.
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Macro

Capacity is not loosening to support rate cuts

May jobs data reveals hidden strength: more hours worked, more pressure on the RBA. We’re positioned for yield curve flattening.
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Fixed Income

Australian exceptionalism

Australian bonds offer safehaven appeal with high real yields and improving fundamentals - poised to outperform in global uncertainty.
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

Betashares economist says RBA could slash rates to 2% if US enters recession

David Bassanese says his base case is the RBA takes rates to 3.35% this year, while other economists warned the cut is a mistake.
Tom Richardson
Livewire Markets
Success and More Interesting Stuff

Dr Philip Lowe: Interest rates alone can’t conquer Australia’s cost of living crisis

The former RBA Governor says Australia is obsessed with interest rates like no other country, and it is distracting us from bigger issues.
Matthew Kidman
Centennial Asset Management
Macro

'We do feel optimistic': RBA cuts rates and delivers positive inflation forecasts

The RBA now forecasts core inflation to fall to 2.7% by June 2025 and stay at that rate through to 2027.
Tom Richardson
Livewire Markets
Macro

Stop obsessing about the RBA

Its impact upon stocks – and of stocks upon it – has long been scant. Investors should ignore it and those who try to predict its actions.
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Macro

Could the RBA not cut interest rates at all?

A new view being espoused in the economics community is raising eyebrows. But does it have any legs?
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

These economists say there is just a 15% chance of a recession in Australia in 2024

And where will the Australian Dollar end the year? Find out the answer to this and other questions in the next episode of Signal or Noise!
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

The Fed cut by 50 basis points. Would the RBA consider doing the same?

The RBA holds rates for another meeting - even as its peers start the long cutting road back to neutral.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

The RBA says interest rate cuts are off the table for 2024. These investors disagree

The statement appeared to be non-committal at first but RBA Governor Michele Bullock turned up the hawkish heat during the media conference.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Australia is at the back end of a major regime change – but that’s not a bad thing for investors

The 50th episode of The Rate Debate focuses on the big risks markets aren't talking about enough.
Darren Langer
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

Markets: We don’t believe you RBA…We expect 3 rate cuts in the next 12 months!

The Reserve Bank chose to keep its cash rate on hold at their August meeting, but market pricing suggests they’re about to cut, and cut big…
Carl Capolingua
Livewire Markets
Education

How experts’ “systematic mispredictions” improve our returns

Their forecasts lure most investors into overconfidence – and thus losses. If you recognise experts’ biases, you can grasp opportunities.
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Macro

Australian shares at new record highs - is it sustainable?

We slightly increase our expectations for the ASX 200 this year but also anticipate a more volatile, constrained outlook
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Why is Australia talking about rate hikes?

...when the rest of the world is talking about rate cuts?
Diana Mousina
AMP
Macro

How should your portfolio be positioned if the RBA's next move is a hike?

AMP's Shane Oliver and Oreana's Isaac Poole are here to quell your concerns and turn them into opportunities.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Fixed Income

A statement of ifs and buts

Will the RBA’s gentler approach continue to work? Find out in this edition of The Rate Debate.
Darren Langer
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

The RBA did not consider a cut at its June meeting - but it did consider a hike

The narrow path to a soft landing, in the RBA Governor's own words, "appears to be getting narrower".
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
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