As an active manager of high-grade bonds, we continue to focus on the moves of the US Federal Reserve. The Fed remains resolute on its path of increasing short-term rates into the zenith of the US economic cycle, and as the world gorges contently on debt. Show More
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected to the upper band target of 1.75%, 0.25% higher than that of the RBA cash rate. The Fed rationalised the increase noting the strengthening of the economic outlook in recent months. Show More
On the 9th March 1987 U2 released the Joshua Tree, the fastest selling British Album of all time that went on to sell over 25 million copies. Joshua Tree is still acclaimed as one of the greatest albums of all time. Interestingly Bono considered pulling the album prior to its... Show More
Have you ever pushed the limit? Sure you have, just that little bit further, just that little bit faster. It’s the secret to success. But also sometimes disaster… Perhaps nowhere is breaking that limit as obvious as on a race track. Yet how many of us, as amateurs, love to... Show More
2017 saw a combination of solid economic growth without a significant pick-up in inflation. This let the Fed continue to raise rates, but at a measured pace, and it has flagged it’s likely to raise rates another three times this year. Other major central banks did not follow this path... Show More
In recent times, many column inches have been devoted in the financial media about an impending disaster in the High Grade/Government Bond market. As Government Bond specialists, we at JCB are amused to see many so-called financial experts comment on a product they have neither sold nor traded. Despite this... Show More
In this article we look at some of the more topical subjects influencing financial markets and analyse a few interesting charts. We start with rising rates – the message being delivered by the Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen in uncharacteristic straightforward terms. Then we cast an eye over President Trump’s tax... Show More
CommSec Chief Economist Craig James takes a look at the economic events scheduled for the week ahead, including the CommSec State of the States report, Australian inflation, US GDP growth and the US Federal Reserve rates meeting. Show More
Let's first consider the broader global economic environment, in particular, the macro drivers of a “globally co-ordinated” gradual improvement in economies which are continuing to evolve. The primary driver of markets, at this point in time, is globally accommodative monetary policy, which underpins economic expansion and the rise in financial... Show More
CommSec Advisory’s Blair Hannon speaks with Tom Piotrowski about the upcoming trading update from Bellamy’s Australia and the US Federal Reserve rates decision For more market insights, visit https://www.commsec.com.au/market-news/the-markets.html Show More
Recently, I returned from a study tour of the world capitals of global macroeconomic policy. This report includes my observations from the road after meeting with key policy making officials, as well as economists and market participants across the US, EU, UK, China and Japan. In short, the current market... Show More
“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore” … As we look around the fixed income landscape today, we can get some idea of how Dorothy felt. In the JP Morgan Government Bond Index, which encompasses the 13 largest government bond markets, an extraordinary 30% of sovereign debt, or... Show More
The most important effect on the Australian economy of any interest rate hikes from the Fed, is the impact they would have on the Australian Dollar. We believe the RBA are on hold for a period, most likely six months, to pause and assess the impact of the last interest... Show More
CommSec Chief Economist Craig James takes a look at the economic events scheduled for the week ahead, including inflation, the CommSec State of the States report and US economic growth Visit CommSec Show More
In a speech on Friday at Harvard University, US Fed Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, made some important remarks about the timing of the next rate hike. “It’s appropriate for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time… Probably in the coming months, such a move... Show More
For the first time since June 2006, the US Fed has raised interest rates. However, the US economy still faces headwinds that draw a question mark over whether it will be able to maintain regular rate hikes next year. http://www.nikkoam.com.au/knowledge-dividend/nikko-am-aus-investment-research/us-federal-reserve-embarks-on-a-journey-into-the-unknown Show More
With market expectations firming around a likely interest rate hike by the United States Federal Reserve next month, it has also been commonly assumed that this will imply a rise in the US dollar. After all, higher US interest rates should make investing in the United States more attractive, which... Show More
Good Afternoon, Show More
Janet Yellen stated on Friday “I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal-funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy”. Yet this CME tool http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/fed-funds-flash.html highlights that Fed Fund futures are pricing a 14% probability of... Show More
We have a suggestion for the US Federal Reserve: come clean; and tell the market where you expect interest rates to be in two to three years’ time. Markets are being whipsawed by paranoia over when US rates will rise and by how much. Financial market commentary is sapping the... Show More