11 lessons from 2025 (that’ll make me a better investor in 2026)

On the eleventh day of Christmas, Livewire shares eleven learnings from 2025.

2025 had something for everyone – a massive drawdown and equally massive bounce, soaring and fading tech valuations, an unstoppable gold rally, still-solid banks and a strong finish for the commodity complex.

Through all of this, here are some of the most important things I've learnt from markets this year.

#1 Buy winners

It’s a timeless piece of advice, so simple, yet so difficult to execute or show conviction for. In my opinion, the best time to embrace this piece of advice is during reporting season. Every February and August, I often write a wire referencing the same insights from Bell Potter’s Richard Coppleson.

He found that in the last 16 reporting seasons (2008-2024), companies that beat earnings expectations delivered an average gain of 5.2% on the day of the result, and gained an additional 6.7% over the following four months.

If we look back at August reporting season, there was a long list of companies that beat expectations, rallied on results day and continued to trend higher post earnings.

The below chart highlights a few beats that come to mind (CDA, TAH, DOW, NCK, COL and ZIP), most of which experienced strong post-earnings gains. Though a few tech/growth oriented names started to fade in late-October, in-line with the broader market.

#2 Sell losers

Coppleson’s data also found that stocks that miss earnings expectations dip an average 6.3% on results day and fall an additional 8.4% over the next four months.

In late September, I was running my usual S&P/ASX 200 52 week low scan and noted that eight of the nine stocks making fresh yearly lows were August reporting season losers.

This list included: Inghams, Sonic Healthcare, Ebos, CSL, IPH, Bapcor, Domino’s and Reece.

These stocks suffered an average results day decline of 18.8% and despite such a large one-day selloff, they averaged a further 9.2% fall from the results day to 23 September.

#3 Leverage your know ins

The key is leveraging that edge. Here's my best example from 2025.

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (ASX: DBI) is one of the most reliable dividend stocks on the market – I don’t say that as an opinion, but as a matter of fact.

• DBI owns the lease and rights to operate the Dalrymple Bay Terminal, a major coal export facility at the Port of Hay Point, Queensland
• Its revenue model is anchored by take-or-pay contracts, meaning the customer must pay the terminal charge, regardless of whether they use the capacity or not
• All 84.2 million tonnes of capacity is full contracted through 2028
• Operating and maintenance expenses are directly passed on to customers
• Non-expansion capex is recovered via tariff increases linked to bond yields

To put it all together, the company’s revenue and earnings visibility is crystal clear. That’s why it barely moved during periods like Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement.

Another way to look at it is that the stock can’t fall too much because its dividend yield will become too attractive.

DBI suffered two sizeable selloffs this year, down 6% on both 13 June and 10 September. Both dips were associated with Brookfield Infrastructure Partners offloading substantial stakes via block trades at a 6-7% discount.

When I saw DBI gap down, I thought "isn't this free money" since the dip will be well-supported as the dividend yield had just become more attractive.

Post selldown, DBI rallied 10% and 8% respectively over the next ten trading sessions.

#4 Listen to the data

2025 was a busy year for M&A, and plenty of small-to-mid caps made moves in the form of bolt-on acquisitions that were materially earnings accretive but not dilutive or overly expensive. 

This included:

• Jumbo Interactive acquired UK-based Dream Car Giveaways for $109.9m, valuing the business at 6.5x adjusted EBITDA, expected to deliver double-digit EPS accretion in the first twelve months
• NWH acquired Fredon Industries for $122m upfront and earn-out of up to $60m. This valued the business at 5.2x EBIT, with immediate EPS accretion (Frendon FY25 revenue of $840m, EBIT of $38.6m and $3.6bn in pipeline opportunities).
• Cuscal acquired Indue for $75m, valuing business at a PE of 3.7x and expected to generate annual run rate cost synergies of $15-20m, with EPS accretion of more than 25% by FY29

The key takeaway is that all three stocks experienced strong rallies on both the day of the announcement and the days that followed. Jumbo has since gone full circle (rallied 30% within six sessions but gave most of those gains back over the next two weeks), while Cuscal and NWH are both up around 35% since the announcement.

You can read my full wire about these acquisitions here.

#5 Stay out of Africa

I know I know, how did I go from numbers to ‘stay out of Africa’. But seriously, stay out of Africa. Unless you want to risk it for the biscuit.

2025 was another wild year for those operating in sub-par jurisdictions. Headlines that come to mind include:

• US-listed gold miner Barrick Mining was minding its own business when Malian government helicopters unexpectedly landed at its gold mine and seized more than one metric ton (~US$117m) of gold.
• Resolute Mining’s CEO and two other staff were detained by Malian authorities for ten days in late 2024 amid a tax dispute. In February, CEO Terry Holohan quit.
• West African Resources was halted for three months (Aug to Nov) after the Burkina Faso Government requested an additional 35% interest in its Kiaka Gold Project.

Most of these stocks trade at steep discounts to peers and can experience powerful re-rates when they demonstrate operational or sovereign stability. But the risk is ever-present and things can go sour at any moment. 

#6 Don’t listen to ratings

I read broker reports to understand the investment thesis, the modelling and the magnitude of the target price/rating change. But never take the target price and rating for face value.

CSL (ASX: CSL) is a prime example. On paper, it's a defensive growth darling with a strong track record, trading at its cheapest valuation relative to both historical averages and the S&P/ASX 200.

In reality, the stock went nowhere for five years. Things turned worse after its FY25 result on August 19, when FY26 guidance came in well below market expectations. It's now on track to finish the year down 35%.

Throughout this decline, analysts maintained their Outperform ratings with target prices typically around $300-330. 

Only last week did Macquarie finally give up and downgrade the stock to Neural.

#7 Take partials

If a run up seems too good to be true, then it might be an opportune time to take some off the table. This could take the form of a trailing stop loss, selling a portion of the position, or moving to a free carry (if the position has doubled).

The best example of this is the fall from grace for many high-flying tech names like Pro Medicus, Technology One, Catapult Sports, Qoria, Xero and more. Many of these stocks re-rated to triple digit PEs and growth rates simply couldn't keep up with the price expansion. By late-September, most of these stocks started to falter and by late-December, the S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index had dipped 30% from its September high.

#8 Watch IPOs

One of my favourite setups continues to be the IPO breakout.

This is what the set up looks like in a nutshell:

IPOs tend to experience a powerful breakout because:

• Fresh chart, with no overhead resistance: Unlike established stocks, there are no bagholders above the breakout level. Every single shareholder is in profit when the stock breaks out above its IPO range. This means there's no one looking to "get out at breakeven," which typically creates selling pressure.
• Retail and/or institutional accumulation: That sideways consolidation period often represents smart money quietly building positions. Institutions can't buy their full allocation during the IPO itself, so they accumulate during the base formation.
• Earnings validation: The breakout represents the stock proving itself in the public market. The company has reported earnings, demonstrated its business model works, and gained credibility.

There are plenty of examples from the past 12-18 months, including Cuscal, Alfabs, Tasmea, Symal and Guzman Y Gomez (which worked until it didn't).

#9 Be an onion

Yeah, I know these insights just keep getting more weird, don't they?

What I’ve come to realise is that the more layers I can add to an investment thesis, the more edge it adds to the trade and the greater likelihood of success. When I think about the positions that have worked this year, they are typically the onion ones.

The worst kind of investor I’ve seen are those ‘technical analysts’ that just draw triangles on charts and nothing else.

One of the stocks I hold as part of my son's portfolio is Cuscal (ASX: CCL). You can read his meet the investor wire here. In a nutshell, the thesis behind Cuscal was a mix of the IPO breakout and low volatility chart, undemanding valuation (both literal and relative to payment peers) and broader tailwinds for its payments sub-sector.

#10 Shoutout to the apps

Everyone's investing journey wouldn’t be possible without the various sites, tools and apps that make it possible. Here’s a shoutout to some of my favourites:

• Charts: TradingView, Carl Capolingua
• Data: Market Index, TradingView, good ol Microsoft Excel
• Brokers: Stake, Commsec, FPMarkets
• News: Bloomberg, Reuters, AFR
• Miscellaneous: X/Twitter

#11 Read the above again because I’ve run out of ideas