Sunset Strip | Aussie Afternoon Institutional Market Wrap

Aussie market finished positive after giving up 1% from the high of the day as RBA left the rates unchanged. Turnover was just above $5.4b. US markets over the weekend remained positive despite weak job data following weak manufacturing and consumer data. The US markets are betting on rates remaining low for longer and any raise is likely to be slow and measured at best. US market continues to hover around the technical support level with fear and greed index moving back to neutral zone. It is clear that US corporate growth is going to struggle with GDP growth in Q1. There is no doubt that US is recovering, but the rate is below trend and likely to remain weak due to the strengthening currency and slowing global headwinds. Turnover volatility, short covering, stretched multiples, rising volatility, rising bond yields were sending warning signs around early March. RBA made the mature choice to leave rates unchanged despite 70% of the market expecting a cut. We felt that Feb cut was a wasted cut as it delivered no consumer recovery or currency deflation while making the asset bubbles worse. We felt that a rate cut in April will only further inflate the asset bubble and unlikely to deliver improvement in consumer sentiment or currency deflation due to the global and local macro. We clarify our views below under “PROPERTY BUBBLE”, “CURRENCY WAR” and “INTEREST RATES”. The global macro and commodity supply/demand dynamics points to further and prolonged downside risk for Iron Ore and Oil. The gun shy government with no plans points to substantial risk in the next 12-18mths for the domestic economy as the unemployment goes past 7% and the terms of trade shrinks. As a very wise old man once told me “life is all about cycles, you evolve with the cycle or the cycle runs over you”.