3 ASX 200 property stocks still a Buy despite the housing crash

Another week, another slew of bad news stories for Australia's embattled property market.

Auction rates across the country fell below 50% for the second week in a row, and September marked sixth straight months of house price falls, with Cotality's Home Value Index dropping 1.1%. 

Many experts, including AMP's Shane Oliver, are calling for a 10-15% total downturn in property prices. 

And this sentiment has been felt across many of the biggest names in the ASX 200 Real Estate sector (XRE), with none of the 20 largest stocks in that index posting a positive return over the last 12 months. 

With many predicting the outlook for the Australian property market to get worse before it gets better, it seems like a sector that could be worth avoiding for the foreseeable future. 

But the brokers think otherwise, at least on certain big name property stocks. Here are three notable companies that all have Buy ratings despite the macro headwinds. 

1.  Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Rating: Strong Buy (3 Buys, 1 Hold)

Upside potential: 28.4%

Property and infrastructure manager Goodman Group has traded 17.5% lower than the broader ASX 200 over the last year, but appears to have bottomed out near its previous March lows. 

While the company has formally withdrawn its Lane Cove data centre project, it boasts a few upcoming catalysts that mean brokers are a consensus Buy. These include a 20-year hyperscale lease in Tsukuba, Japan, a US$455m capital raise in Hong Kong and a 37% upgrade to work-in-progress to $19.7 billion.

Citi is targeting a share price of $40, well above its current price around the $27 mark, and cite GMG as underrated compared to similar global companies. 

Morgan Stanley are similarly targeting a share price of $36.15, representing a roughly 33% upside from current prices. 

2. Stockland (ASX: SGP)

Rating: Buy (2 Buys, 2 Holds)

Upside potential: 17%

Diversified property group Stockland has also endured a rough 2026, lagging the ASX 200 by 30% after reaching an 18-year high in 2025.

But that has been enough for brokers to call it a buy, with a consensus price target of $4.93, suggesting 17% upside. 

FY27 funds from operations (FFO) are forecasted to hit 38-39c per security, a 4.3% over FY26, with consensus at circa 8,000 resi lot settlements.

But Morgan Stanley is skeptical on those numbers and has flagged a downgrade on Stockland's FY28 resi lot settlement to ~7,000 lots, and revised its price target down to $4.75 from $5.10. 

It did suggest the FFO impact there could be limited if it's offset by data centre sell-down profits. 

UBS also named Stockland as a stock that could underperform through an RBA rate hiking cycle, but maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $5.10.

3. Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC)

Rating: Strong Buy (3 Buys)

Upside potential: 29.9%

Property investment and funds manager Charter Hall remains singularly exposed to the current complexities and challenges of Australia's property market, and like the other stocks on this list, has lagged the ASX 200 over the last 12 months, (by -14%) despite the index itself having a year to forget. 

But according to UBS, the selloff in CHC has arguably gone too far, with the market fearing a repeat of 2022-23 when the stock dropped 60% through the RBA's hiking cycle. 

UBS has highlighted Charter Hall as one of its "Top Picks", given it is trading at a 15.8x NTM PE compared to the ASX 200 average of 18x, despite boasting higher FY27 EPS growth. It also argued that that growth would be more resilient if the RBA maintains a hiking cycle because of the proportion of recurring earnings and capital flows. 

It also reiterated FY27 guidance of 10.5% growth and is targeting a share price of $24, for 23% upside potential.