A simple analysis of the Australian housing market, using history as a guide

Tim Hannon

Conrad Capital Group

We have written a piece on the Australian housing market out of frustration from reading the views of so many market commentators that don’t seem to have studied the rich history of housing crises. Australian house prices have grown to the level they have over the past 25 years because of credit growth - the interaction of the willingness to borrow and the willingness to lend. It will therefore be the unwinding of credit growth that will likely cause a crisis. We firstly present the many interacting reasons why housing loan growth in Australia has exceeded economic growth every year since 1991 to create all of the ingredients necessary for a crisis. We then provide the catalysts that might turn the present environment into a crisis and provide investors with the variables to monitor. Ultimately we will be watching housing credit growth, if this variable moves into negative territory we should expect a significant Australian housing price correction to ensue.


Tim Hannon
Tim Hannon
Managing Director
Conrad Capital Group

Tim has 25 years’ experience in the investment and securities markets. Tim was a partner of Goldman Sachs and during his 16-year tenure at the firm had senior experience across all areas of equities investing.

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