We have written a piece on the Australian housing market out of frustration from reading the views of so many market commentators that don’t seem to have studied the rich history of housing crises. Australian house prices have grown to the level they have over the past 25 years because of credit growth - the interaction of the willingness to borrow and the willingness to lend. It will therefore be the unwinding of credit growth that will likely cause a crisis. We firstly present the many interacting reasons why housing loan growth in Australia has exceeded economic growth every year since 1991 to create all of the ingredients necessary for a crisis. We then provide the catalysts that might turn the present environment into a crisis and provide investors with the variables to monitor. Ultimately we will be watching housing credit growth, if this variable moves into negative territory we should expect a significant Australian housing price correction to ensue.



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James Marlay

Hi Tim, thanks for taking the time to put this together. Clearly written and well presented. James

Peter Wiseman

I looked on the Apra web site but could not find a monthly report of Australian housing credit growth charts where does one find this information on the APRA web site??