Adobe’s valuation slump on AI disruption not an issue for Canva, says fund manager

Adobe's 18-month share price slide on worries its software design products will be disrupted by advances in AI won't put a dampener on Canva's valuation, according to Nick Griffin of Munro Partners. 

Speaking at a Grant Samuel Funds Management breakfast, Griffin said Figma's hot Wall Street float underpinned Canva's potential to list at an eye-popping valuation, despite investors marking Adobe (NYSE: ADBE) down 45% since February 2024. 

"Canva is the low-cost player in the space and that's the advantage so they can use AI to upsell," says Griffin. "Whereas Adobe is the high-cost player in the space and people are using AI to undercut them using products like Midjourney and other video products."

Last week, Canva rival Figma hit the Nasdaq boards at 20 times sales, before shares nearly quadrupled from their $US33 float price to $US122 over two days of manic buying that stunned Wall Street.

The buying frenzy even left analysts questioning whether Figma's bankers priced the float too cheap and left money on the table for their clients selling out. 

Software players losing out to platforms

Aside from the design software space, Griffin said another investment shift to watch is software sellers such as Adobe, Zoom and Salesforce getting disrupted by AI-powered competitors able to offer products of a similar utility for cheaper prices. 

"Adobe and Salesforce - we're more negative on these companies," he said. "They're probably overcharging for what they've been selling and as companies move into AI they'll find they can do that themselves or amalgamate it themselves."

"So, the vertical software industry looks in a bit of trouble. Whereas a platform software company like Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT) is the reverse. You'll get a platformisation of software, which basically means you'll get less software companies." 

Platformisation brings scattered tools and processes together into one seamless system, shifting from siloed solutions to a connected, centralised platform.

Winner takes most in race to dominate AI agents

Elsewhere, the race to dominate the AI agent app space for consumers is likely to be a market that morphs into winner takes most, rather than winner takes all, according to Griffin. 

ChatGPT, Meta AI, Gemini, Grok, and Microsoft Copilot are all currently seeking to take market share by expanding networks, hardware, and products horizontally to draw consumers into their tech ecosystems. 

"Google [search] is the only true winner takes all. Even if you look at ride sharing its winner takes most now," Griffin said. 

Munro Partners' flagship Global Growth Fund now totals nearly $1.5 billion under management and has returned a compound 19.4% for the past three years after fees. Its top four holdings  as at June 2025 are Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta. 

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