Ari Merenstein, Prince Street: If the China slowdown becomes structural and not a 3-6 month hiccup, it would have large consequences

Ari Merenstein, Prince Street: If the China slowdown becomes structural and not a 3-6 month hiccup, it would have large consequences. But given how many times people have lost their shirts betting on a Chinese hard-landing, there is a Pavlovian response to believe it's under control this time. I'm not sure. I think the Chinese leadership is doing the right things to set China on a development course that doesn't end like Japan circa 1989. However, we are in the midst of that adjustment at the moment, in a country with over 1Billion people, a very complicated economy, lots of leverage, and a rapidly deteriorating property market. As in the late 1990s when SOE reform was implemented, I would not be surprised if China is forced into two very weak years of GDP to make the transition. Bullish? Long term absolutely, short term absolutely not.


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