ASX 200 on hold until after Fed meeting, energy stocks extend rally, gold stocks lose shine

Today in Review

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 7.4 points lower at 7,695.8, 0.55% from its session high and smack-bang on its session low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by 130 to 137 – but that makes it three sessions now where it’s almost been a dead heat between the two.

The Energy (XEJ) (+0.6%) sector was the best performing sector today, likely in response to another solid gain in crude oil prices. No solid gains in the two major coal contracts, metallurgical and thermal coal, yet coal stocks Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (2.7%) and New Hope Corporation (NHC) (+1.7%) were among the sector's biggest gainers.

Also doing well today were uranium stocks, which are recovering along with the uranium price. Check ChartWatch for a closer look at Paladin Energy (PDN) (+5.6%).

Doing it tough today was the Gold (XGD) (-2.4%) sub-index, perhaps this is no surprise given its candlestick chart as been in a zebra pattern for the last two weeks (see ChartWatch).

The rest of the sectors, on a day where the index barely moved, were a much of a muchness…

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ChartWatch

S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Sub-Index (XGD)

Check out the Zebra pattern on the XGD over the last 2 weeks! It suggests considerable indecision within the demand-supply environment, and is hardly a glowing endorsement for ASX gold stocks.

Still, it hasn't done a great deal of damage to the prevailing short term trend, and the long term trend ribbon (albeit very flat) is still indicating an uptrend.

These two areas are now the key points of dynamic demand going forward. As long as the XGD continues to close above the uptrend ribbons short and long term uptrends are intact.

Supply is clearly at 7013. It would take a close above this point to reaffirm the short and long term uptrends, and potentially set the XGD up for a move to historical supply at 7571. A close below the uptrend ribbons would likely see historical demand at 6106 come into play.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

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Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.8% Tuas (TUA) FY24 Half Year Results, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +12.5% Iperionx (IPX) No news, initiated at buy at Bell Potter with price target: $3.70, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +11.5% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +6.9% Deep Yellow (DYL) No news, small rise in uranium price, retained at buy at Bell Potter with price target increased to $1.90 from $1.81, bounced off long term uptrend ribbon

• +6.2% GQG Partners (GQG) No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +5.6% Paladin Energy (PDN) No news, small rise in uranium price, retained at buy at Citi with price target $1.45, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +5.4% Bravura Solutions (BVS) No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +5.2% Generation Development Group (GDG) No news, small rise in uranium price, initiated at buy at Ord Minnett with price target $2.50, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +3.8% Lotus Resources (LOT) Change in substantial holding from MQG (increase), small rise in uranium price, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

Trading lower

• -13.0% Brainchip Holdings (BRN) No news, fading fast after Feb's monster (and inexplicable) rally

• -5.9% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) No news, general gold sector weakness, closed below short term uptrend ribbon

• -5.0% Sayona Mining (SYA) No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -5.0% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) No news, heat coming out of recent short covering / batter metals & tech rally, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend

• -4.7% Tourism Holdings Rentals (THL) No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -4.3% Red 5 (RED) No news, general gold sector weakness

• -4.2% South32 (S32) Australia Manganese Update, falls in key base metals aluminium, nickel, copper and zinc

• -4.1% Ebos Group (EBO) No news, closed below long term downtrend ribbon, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend

• -3.9% Peter Warren Automotive Holdings (PWR) No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -3.8% Perseus Mining (PRU) No news, general gold sector weakness

• -3.8% Capricorn Metals (CMM) No news, general gold sector weakness

• -3.8% Nickel Industries (NIC) No news, retained at buy at Bell Potter but price target cut to $1.50 from $1.53, fall in the nickel price

Broker Notes

• AGL Energy (AGL)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.60

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.99

• ARB Corporation (ARB) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $44.90

• Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.19

• ASX (ASX) Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $53.50

• Alumina (AWC) Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.30 from $1.05

• Bapcor (BAP) Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $6.34

• BHP Group (BHP) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $48.00 from $46.00

• Boral (BLD) Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.75 from $6.24

• Boss Energy (BOE) Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.00

• Deterra Royalties (DRR) Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.20 from $5.00

• Deep Yellow (DYL) Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.90 from $1.81

• Fortescue (FMG) Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $24.50 from $24.00

• Generation Development Group (GDG) Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.50

• G.U.D. Holdings (GUD) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.80

• Iluka Resources (ILU) Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.70 from $7.60

• Imdex (IMD) Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $2.10

• Inghams Group (ING) Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.35

• Iperionx (IPX) Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.70

• KMD Brands (KMD)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.51 from $0.47

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.55 from $0.80

• MMA Offshore (MRM) Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.60

• Metcash (MTS) Upgraded to buy from neutral at Bank of America; Price Target: $4.90 from $3.20

• New Hope Corporation (NHC)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.85

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $4.80

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.70

• Nickel Industries (NIC) Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.53

• Origin Energy (ORG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.29

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.88

• Paladin Energy (PDN) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.45

• Premier Investments (PMV) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $30.20

• Pacific Smiles Group (PSQ) Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.90

• Rio Tinto (RIO) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $137.00 from $139.00

• South32 (S32) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.50

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $11.52

• Webjet (WEB) Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $8.80

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.00

• Woolworths Group (WOW) Downgraded to neutral from buy at Bank of America; Price Target: $33.30 from $37.40

Scans

This article first appeared on Market Index on Wednesday 20 March 2024.