ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 lower + M&A and earnings from ResMed, BHP and Newmont

ASX 200 futures are trading 26 points lower, down -0.34% as of 8:30 am.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• S&P 500 lower overnight but finished well above session lows of -1.60%
• Bond yields up for a second straight session on hotter-than-expected US core PCE data (3.7% vs. 3.4% consensus)
• US 10-year yield nears highest level since last November and 2-year yield hit 5.0%
• Markets push back first rate cut to November after today's growth and inflation data (FT)
• Retail traders turn bearish for first time since November as AAII bull-bear spread flips negative (Bloomberg)
• Rubrik jumps 21% in latest strong IPO (Reuters)
• Investors withdrew record US$8.8bn from sustainable funds in Q1 (Reuters)

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Meta's Q1 earnings miss triggers worries about AI spending at US tech megacaps (Bloomberg)
• Meta's Zuckerberg asks investors for patience on AI push that triggered concerns about spending (Bloomberg)
• Deutsche Bank Q1 profit highest in 11 years amid investment banking recovery (FT)
• Ford beats Q1 sales estimates on high commercial truck demand (Bloomberg)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ feels heat from yen weakness, complicating further easy monetary policy (FT)
• ECB's Schnabel warns last mile on deflation may be bumpy (Reuters)
• Australian rates set to remain higher for longer as inflation remains sticky (The Aus)

GEOPOLITICS

• Blinken asks China to provide level playing field for American businesses (Reuters)
• Israel poised to evacuate civilians in Gaza ahead of planned Rafah offensive (Reuters)
• Hamas official suggests group willing to put down its weapons in exchange for a two-state solution using 1967 borders (AP)

ECONOMY

• US Q1 GDP grows at the slowest pace in nearly two years as surging imports and inventories weigh (Reuters)
• German GfK consumer confidence hit a two-year high (Reuters)
• South Korea Q1 GDP growth beats estimates (Reuters)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to open lower as inflation surprises (Aus data from Wed and US core PCE overnight) continue to push bond yields higher and drag global equities lower
• Markets remain in a cautious state following disappointing megacap tech earnings and stagflation worries sparked by the weaker-than-expected US GDP print
• Gold and copper miners set to rally as prices for the commodities continued to push higher alongside upbeat earnings and M&A activity ((more on that below)
• BHP confirms all-share proposal to Anglo American, valuing the multinational at approximately $56 billion (BHP)
• Newmont soared 12.5% overnight after first quarter earnings exceeded analyst expectations – EPS beat consensus by 52% and FY guidance was reaffirmed (NEM)
• Qube could look to New Zealand for next acquisition (The Aus)
• ResMed set to rally (NYSE ADRs up 9.0% in after hours) after March quarter earnings beat analyst expectations – EPS beat consensus by 10.3% (RMD)

BROKER MOVES

• Beach Energy upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $1.85 from $1.80 (JPMorgan)
• Champion Iron upgraded to Buy from Overweight; target up to $7.95 from $7.76 (Jarden)
• Fortescue upgraded to Underperform from Sell; target up to $24.25 from $20 (CSLA)
• Lynas downgraded to Underperform from Buy; target cut to $6.85 from $7.20 (Jarden)
• Nick Scali upgraded to Buy from Overweight; target up to $15.40 from $13.87 (Jarden)
• Regis Resources downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $1.80 from $2.15 (UBS)
• Silver Lake upgraded to Buy from Hold with $1.70 target (Argonaut Securities)
• Southern Cross Electrical initiated Buy with $1.50 target (Shaw and Partners)
  
  

KEY EVENTS

• Fri 26 April: None
• Mon 29 April: Acrow (ACF) – $0.029, 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.035
• Tue 30 April: None
• Wed 1 May: DRA Global (DRA) – $0.11
• Thu 2 May: WAM Strategic Value (WAR) – $0.022, Waterco (WAT) – $0.07, Acorn Capital (ACQ) – $0.028, Bank of Queensland (BOQ) – $0.17

• Dividends paid: Boral (BLD) – $0.26, Horizon Oil (HZN) – $0.015, Cedar Woods Properties (CWP) – $0.08, Australian Clinical Labs (ACL) – $0.03
• Listing: None

• 11:30 am: Australia Producer Price Index (March Quarter)
• 1:00 pm: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
• 10:30 pm: US Core PCE Price Index (Mar) 

This Morning Wrap was written by Kerry Sun.