Australian housing: Unit supply is surging

AMP Capital

AMP Capital

Expensive housing and high household debt leave Australian housing vulnerable. But without a recession or much higher interest rates a property crash is unlikely. However, the surging supply of apartments and the continuing strength of the Sydney and Melbourne property markets pose an increasing risk. Average dwelling prices in these cities are likely to see another cyclical 5-10% price downswing around 2018, with unit prices in oversupplied areas likely to decline 15-20%. The combination of high house prices, huge gains in Sydney and Melbourne, low rental yields and a coming surge in the supply of apartments mean property investors need to be careful. Best to focus on undersupplied, less loved parts of the property market. In the full story, I look at the risks of a property crash, particularly given the rising supply of units, implications from the property cycle for economic growth and how investors should view it. (VIEW LINK)


AMP Capital is one of the world's leading investment houses, with a 160-year pioneering heritage. Our enviable track record in real estate and infrastructure is coupled with deep expertise in fixed income, equities and multi-asset investments.

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