Buy Hold Sell: 5 ASX stocks that crushed it in FY26 (and two that should kick on)

There are a few moments throughout the financial year that lend themselves to a portfolio review. 

While investors should always remain diligent, January 1 provides a fresh opportunity to cast a critical eye over one's holdings, while the February and August reporting seasons offer another chance to decide which companies continue to make the cut.

But perhaps EOFY trumps them all, particularly due to tax-loss selling, where investors realise capital losses on underperforming investments to offset capital gains elsewhere in their portfolios and reduce their overall tax bill.

Most of the treatment above, however, focuses on the losers. What about the winners? What about those stocks that have had a ripping 12 months and become the stars of your portfolio? 

Can they continue to outperform, or was the past year as good as it gets?

To help answer those questions and run the ruler over five of FY26's top performers, Livewire's Chris Conway is joined by ClearBridge Investment's Reece Birtles and Yarra Capital Management's Marcus Ryan. 

For good measure, each guest highlights one company that has had a great 12 months that they believe will kick on in FY27. 

This episode was filmed on Wednesday, 17th June 2026.

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Edited transcript

Chris Conway: Hello and welcome to Livewire's Buy Hold Sell, my name is Chris Conway. End of financial year is a perfect time to do a portfolio review. And whilst we all know what to do with the duds (sell 'em!), what should you do with the stocks that have had a cracking 12 months? Today I'm joined by Reece Birtles from ClearBridge Investments and Marcus Ryan from Yarra Capital Management. We're going to run the ruler over five companies that killed it in FY26. For good measure, the gents have each bought a stock that they think will do well in FY27. Before we get to the stocks, Marcus, I'll come to you first. Generally speaking, how has it been being an ASX investor in FY26, to this point at least?

How has it been being an ASX investor in FY26

Marcus Ryan: Thanks, Chris. Great to be here. Look, I'd say it's been a real solid year for ASX 200 equities. The market's up about 8% year-over-year. But to us, this is actually hiding the real story that's been happening for the last 12 months. So earnings growth for F26, we expect will come in at around 14% year-over-year, significantly better than the 6% that was expected this time 12 months ago. And the story here is pretty much two-dimensional. It's resources that are a lot stronger, and it's banks that are a bit more resilient than what we first expected. So under the hood of that 8% market return, there's been some really significant dispersion. The first thing we'd call out at one end of the barbell is that real strength in metals and mining. So that cohort of stocks, Chris, is actually up 7% year-over-year. Energy's up 20% year-over-year. Strong commodity prices, geopolitical dynamics have driven that. Electrification, AI advancement as well all played into that complex. Middle of the field, we really have the financials. They've been relatively flat. But what we've seen there is the banks actually start to retrace. From really high levels, peak valuations, we're moving into this interesting phase now of where some of the budget-related concerns are starting to manifest. And then at the weaker end of the barbell, we've seen IT and healthcare, these two sectors, they've been under a tremendous amount of pressure. They're off about 40% each. We've seen AI disruption really impact. We've seen competitive dynamics come into play for healthcare as well. So in conclusion, Chris, let's say F26, it's been a real test for investment discipline, for risk management across the portfolio. And I'd say for the first time in many years, we've just seen real divergence between those pockets of winners and losers.

Chris Conway: We'll get to some of those winners in a moment. Reece, I'll throw to you. This time of year, does it naturally lend itself to a bit of a portfolio review? Or is end of financial year just another date on the calendar that you roll through?

Is EOFY just another date on the calendar?

Reece Birtles: So we've had a cracking year in the Select Opportunities Fund. We've probably done returns double the market level as we head towards the end of June. So with really strong performance, there's obviously lots of winners in the portfolio. And as Marcus described, there's been a lot going on between SaaS, inflation, Iran War and interest rates. So that definitely lends itself to more turnover. We'll probably do about 45% turnover for the year, which is double what we would normally do given the opportunities. And we'd just say the other thing that's driving that higher turnover is pacification driving inefficiencies in the market. So you're seeing really large price reactions to small news events around significant news dates, and that's giving us a lot more opportunity to take advantage.

BHP Group (ASX: BHP)

Chris Conway: Let's get to the stocks now. First up, we're going to talk about BHP. Marcus, you mentioned the great performance of metals and mining, and BHP has really driven a lot of that. So I'll come to you first. Buy, hold or sell for the Big OZ?

Marcus Ryan (BUY): BHP remains a buy for us. It is our preferred large-cap diversified miner. So the share price strength, yeah, it's really been driven by very strong backdrop for commodities. We'd say strong execution across their portfolio as well, rather than just the sentiment. So particularly for BHP, copper as a commodity, that's up 40% year-over-year. Iron ore still trading around that US hundred bucks a tonne. Well, that's flat year-over-year against a backdrop of an expectation of price falls. So, moving forward, we like BHP and continue to like the commodity mix. So around almost half of the earnings now is coming from copper. We see that as an advantaged commodity with quite a tight supply backdrop as well. Really like just the quality of the assets across BHP as well. And that's really reflected with where the assets sit on the cost curve. That speaks to their ability to get good solid margins moving forward. And then just finally, I'd say valuation. Look, it would be remiss to say the valuation is fuller than where it's been in the past.

The stock is now trading on eight times EV to EBITDA. That's above its long run, six times EV to EBITDA. But we do recognise two things. The first thing is now the better commodity mix. We've spoken about the copper. And the second aspect is the potential for further earnings and dividend upgrades from here. So as a hypothetical exercise, if commodity prices did hold at this current level for the rest of the calendar year, this is a stock we're expecting should see around 5% further upgrade in cash flows, earnings and dividends.

Chris Conway: Marcus, you mentioned that the market's up about 7.5-8% financial year-to-date. BHP has done almost 10 times that, so up about 75%. Reece, is there still value there for you? Is it a buy, hold or sell?

Reece Birtles (BUY):  So we've been buying BHP probably since second half '24 all through '25. We'd still say it's a buy, but I think you need to be more aware of the valuation where it is now. So clearly agree with Marcus in terms of loving the low-cost position they have in iron ore, their growing earnings contribution over 50% from copper and gold even now, and just how AI and electrification is really driving demand for copper, that is just seeing that price move higher and higher and incentivising every project that's available, but it's sort of needed. So that's fine, but it is still a commodity, and you still have to be careful of the cycle. So we'd just be starting to watch valuation now, but it's still a buy for us.

Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU)

Chris Conway: Nice double-buy to start off with. We'll shift gears now, and go to another miner, Iluka Resources. Reece, I'll come to you first this time. Buy, hold, or sell for you on Iluka?

Reece Birtles (SELL): Iluka is a sell for us. Used to love it as a mineral sands business, but clearly under a lot of pressure near end of life on Jacinth-Ambrosia, falling grades, higher costs, titanium and zircon, both under pressure as markets with really a weak China real estate market that's just never going to recover to those pre-2020 type of levels. And then, obviously, rare earths are the big thing with the refinery that a lot of government funding has gone into, but they're really short on primary feedstock material. They need to get the Wimmera Project going to be able to support that feedstock. They probably need to find others and how much of the economics they pay away. And we just think there's a fantastic opportunity in terms of Lynas as the best rare earths company. So for us, Iluka is a sell.

Chris Conway: Yep. Up 110% in the last 12 months, Marcus, where do you sit on this one, buy, hold or sell?

Marcus Ryan (HOLD): We're more a hold on Iluka, and that is really balancing, as you call out, very strong performance in the last 12 months with what are still, we think, some positive catalysts still over the course of this calendar year and into next year. And this might be a slight point of difference to the outlook that Reece has described. It's a stock trading year at about $8 a share. We see a potential pathway for $10. We really need to see two things happen here. So half the value comes from the mineral sands business. And so think of this as like zircon, titanium dioxide that go into industrial uses, everyday industrial uses like your paint and your porcelain and your toilet bowl and your kitchen sinks. So look, there's a range of dynamic factors going on there. We're a little bit more constructive on the pricing outlook, and we see that business actually gradually grinding up further ahead from here. The other half of the valuation, and this is probably more the medium-term catalyst, is around their ability to get an off-take agreement on their rare earths project, Eneabba. And look, we're quite constructive around the outlook for this piece for the business. So we like the outlook for rare earths and think of rare earths as going into a bunch of industrial-type applications that we think there's a strong demand profile for. So like magnets in wind turbines and electronics and defence. Also, what Iluka offers is domestic supply, and that's quite an important point of difference, and we think important in the eyes of many potential off-take partners. So there are risks. We're encouraged by the company's engagement on off-takes, and we think that'll be the key catalyst to watch for in the medium term.

Woolworths Group (ASX: WOW)

Chris Conway: Let's shift gears completely. Let's get out of mining and go into consumer staples. We're going to talk Woolworths. I was very surprised by the performance over the last 12 months. I won't say it just yet, but Marcus, I'll stay with you. Buy, hold or sell for Woolworths?

Marcus Ryan (SELL): Look, we're a sell on Woollies today, and look, that's really in response to the fact that the stock has done very well. It's up 20%, thereabouts year over year.

Chris Conway: There you go. Thanks.

Marcus Ryan: Look, and that's back to its levels of where it was in the COVID boom days. We all remember supermarkets back in those years of 2021. The valuation is also a challenge for us. The stock's trading at about 27 times forward earnings compared to a long-run of 22. So what that means in our diversified portfolios is that we'd see a degree of opportunity cost to be in Woolworths today and would see better opportunities in some other defensive-type names. So, in particular, the concerns we've got moving forward are weakness in their like-for-like sales. They're currently printing quite solid 4-5% like-for-likes. We think perhaps the best days are behind them with respect to that as inflation comes back and the eating-at-home trend starts to fade. We think competition will be an ongoing issue for Woollies as well. So we could talk about particularly some of their dry and packaged goods. We've got Chemist Warehouse doing, Bunnings, Amazon. And then, just finally, the margin outlook. We think there could be some vulnerability there. So look, most listeners be aware that supermarkets are low-margin businesses, might be 5% EBIT margin. But moving forward, online sales, that's not a tailwind to margins, you've got cost pressures in the business. So yeah, risk-reward wins can't quite get there with Woollies.

Chris Conway: Low-margin Marcus, but Coles and Woollies have some of the best margins in the world as Australian supermarkets. So we are paying, we are paying the price. Reece, I'll throw to you, buy, hold or sell for Woolworths.

Reece Birtles (HOLD): We are hold on Woolworths now. About 12 months ago, there was quite a valuation opportunity in Woollies because there was so much negativity around the transition on the CEO, and they'd lost their momentum relative to Coles in terms of like-for-like sales for a whole lot of reasons. Amanda did a great job refocusing the business, getting an improvement on sales. They always say retailers detail, and they were working through those and had a much better Christmas, had a re-rate and probably back to a level where they're fine on valuation. They're not the most expensive in the retail space, but certainly a hold now for us.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

Chris Conway: Next up, we're going to talk about APA Group. Now I know I'm not supposed to have favourites, but this is one of my favourite stocks. Reece, I'll stay with you. Buy, hold or sell on APA Group?

Reece Birtles (HOLD): We're a hold-to-sell on APA. Again, it had some really good valuation opportunities a little while back. There was a lot of negativity about gas and with the renewables trend. And there's also a lot of concern about regulation in the Australian market. And as a result, the company had made a number of investments that are really low return. There's been quite a lot of CapEx they're getting quite a minimal return on. It's had a good re-rating with Iran War and energy security and much better regulation outcome for them. But some of their key pipeline projects are approaching near end of concession life. So the NPV is not really growing on the business anymore. As they pay the dividend, it's coming off the DCF valuation. So it's quite a flat outlook for us, so hold-to-sell.

Chris Conway: APA Group, up 28% over the last 12 months. Marcus, buy, hold or sell for you on APA?

Marcus Ryan (BUY): So we're a little bit more constructive on APA, and we would still be, if we had to characterise, a buy still on the stock. And it's recognising that strong 12-month returns. We do recognise today that APA, building on Reece's point, it's probably no longer that double-digit-type total return story. It's probably more a high single digit, at best, total return. But we think it's in the right postcode. We think the risk profile is better than in the past, and it can play an important role as defensive name in the portfolio. So moving forward, APA as our leading owner and operator of gas pipelines in the country, we like the contracted nature of revenue, and there is the ability to capture some of the inflation moving forward in their contracts. We like the appropriately-sized growth projects that the company's leaning into over time. So we could talk about some of the gas peaking projects they've got on the East Coast with secure off-takes in place. And we also think they could potentially be the beneficiary of watch this space to see how the whole gas reservation policy might take shape as well, and to what degree that could actually provide more of an advantage in tailwind for incumbent owners of domestic pipeline. So Chris, still a buy. It's probably more a high single-digit return, quality infrastructure name in the portfolio.

Woodside Energy Group (ASX: WDS)

Chris Conway: It would be remiss of us not to talk about an oil company given the war in Iran, which has hopefully come to a conclusion. We're going to talk about Woodside Energy, up 15% over the last 12 months. Marcus, I'll stay with you. Buy, hold or sell on Woodside?

Marcus Ryan (BUY): Woodside's a buy for us. It's the leading oil and gas name in the portfolio. And building on your point, stock's up 15% year-over-year. But interestingly, it's back to where it was pre the Iran conflict at the end of Feb, and yet oil prices are still about 15% higher than where they were. Yes, they've retraced from the hundreds. They're down to that $80 region. And we think, notwithstanding early soundbites of maybe supply of oil from the Middle East getting better, we still think energy markets would be rather tight for a period of time. So that's a healthy backdrop. And then, specifically on Woodside, look, we really just like the quality of their assets, oil and gas assets across the globe. We see that in their relatively low operating costs. We like the production growth profile as well. They can get out of their assets. So in particular, got Scarborough and WA and Louisiana over in the US. And then valuation as well for long-term investors like ourselves, we're often happy to look through the next year or two. If you look forward a couple of years for Woodside, you can start to see a stock that's got double-digit free cash flow. We think that'll really support earnings, support dividends, and it's attractive name for us in the portfolio.

Chris Conway: So a buy for you, Marcus. Reece, I'll throw to you, buy, hold-to-sell on Woodside?

Reece Birtles (BUY): It's a difficult one. You don't want to fight the tape, and every day we're hearing that Trump's solved the Iran situation, and obviously oil's in free fall on the back of that, and it never really probably got to the levels that you'd expect. LNG was clearly heading towards a supply glut before the Iran War. That's probably been really quite balanced up with some of the damage that's occurred. I do think the valuation on Woodside is okay. We would be only looking at long-term oil prices in the $60 range. So clearly, this is just a helping hand in the short term, and Woodside's much more of an LNG story. But I think the thing is, whilst I lean towards buy, we'd much prefer Santos. The reason we really don't like Woodside compared to Santos is the Louisiana LNG project is really an arbitrage between US gas prices and the Middle East. They don't own the molecules of the gas, so it's a very low margin. It's going to absorb heaps of CapEx over the next few years and see its debt position rise. Whereas Santos is about production growth and lots of free cash flow. So liking the oil space in terms of leaning to a buy, but prefer Santos.

GUEST PICKS

Cobram Estate Olives (ASX: CBO)

Chris Conway: Now for one of my favourite parts of Buy Hold Sell. I've asked the gents to bring along a stock that has done well for them in FY26 that they think can kick on in FY27. Reece, I will stay with you. What have you got for us?

Reece Birtles: We're a buy on Cobram. We love the Cobram story in terms of the quality of the product, the differentiation. They're the leading producer in the world in terms of margin, the vertical integration they have. They've built out a tremendous business in Australia, where the volume of the harvest will grow from around 12 million litres per annum to 20 million litres per annum over the next eight years, and that's all as the olive groves mature. They dominate the retail landscape in terms of value of contribution sold. And if you haven't tried it, it's a much better product, much healthier than the others. The thing that they've really transformed themselves; in the last 12 months they're building a business in California, and with the acquisition of California Olive Ranch, they've set themselves up with a leading top three brand position in the US. They've been investing in their own groves. They're going to reinvigorate the groves that they've purchased, and they're going to have a similar level of production in the coming years as what they have in Australia. And obviously, the US population of over 300 million compared to Australia at 28 million gives them a very long runway of growth at high returns.

Chris Conway: I was lucky enough to try their first press oil recently, so I can back that. It is a high-quality product. That's a good one, Cobram.

Chris Conway: Marcus, bring us home. What have you got as a stock that you think will kick on in FY27?

Sims (ASX: SGM)

Marcus Ryan: Yeah, thanks, Chris. Look, I'd say Sims would be one of those names for us. And look, Sims Metal, it has done very well over the last 12 months. It's broadly doubled, but we think there are further catalysts to come. So just for context, the stock's now trading at about $29. We think there's a pathway to north of 35. The company's just had an earnings update, and that's reasonably supportive for that thesis in the medium term. We think the aspect of the Sims business that, frankly, has been hidden in plain sight for many years is this SLS business. So this is a segment of Sims that really looks to retrieve and repurpose value out of data centre upgrades. Now this is a business, obviously, where the end-market demand has grown terrifically in recent years, and the economics there are really linked to chip prices and hyperscaler volume demand. So this is a part of the business that there's a lot of momentum in, and we can see some medium-term momentum for a period of time. So yeah, looking forward. The things we're relying on here is the core business that makes up about half the value of Sims, just the scrap metal business. We think that'll continue to benefit from particularly recycling margins in the US, where the US tariffs on steel and copper allow the domestic recyclers there to make good margins. Second piece is this SLS momentum that we've described. And just for context, this business only made 20 million of EBIT back in F24. We think there's a pathway for that business, that segment alone to make north of 200 mil by F27 so over half of the earnings of the group. Third point and in a minor way, we think there's some potential unlocking of value from some non-core asset sales. So yeah, Sims for us, we think there's a structural beneficiary argument here from those two key market segments in the business.

Chris Conway: There you have it, ladies and gentlemen. Hopefully this episode helps you make some decisions about the stocks that have done well in your portfolio in FY26 and added a couple of names to your watch list as we head into FY27. Massive thank you to Marcus and Reece. If you liked the episode, make sure to give it a like, and don't forget to follow our YouTube channel. We're adding lots of great content every single week.