Buy Hold Sell: Ride or rotate? The themes shaping portfolios in 2026

If 2025 showed investors anything, it’s that the best money wasn’t made by sitting still; it was made by catching the right waves.

While broader markets delivered solid returns, the lion's share of profits went to investors willing to back the big themes: uranium, defence stocks, gold miners, Bitcoin, the Nasdaq, and Australian small caps. Get the wave right, and returns arrive fast.

But as any surfer knows, timing matters. Not every wave kept rolling, and some themes lost momentum just as quickly as they emerged.

So as we head into the New Year, the key question is which of these themes still have legs - and where is the next swell forming?

To find out, we sat down with Michael Wayne from Medallion Financial Group and Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners to unpack which 2025 themes can continue, and nominate their one hotspot for 2026 and how to play it.

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 17 December 2025.

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Edited Transcript

Vishal Teckchandani: Welcome to Buy Hold Sell, brought to you by Livewire Markets. My name is Vishal Teckchandani. In 2025, while broader markets had a fantastic run, the lion's share of profit went to investors willing to back big themes. The question now is, do these themes still have legs in 2026? Joining me to assess six key pockets of opportunity are Michael Wayne from Medallion Financial and Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners. Welcome, gents. We're going to talk about these themes. And they're also going to name their one best investment idea and the ETF to play in 2026. So, Adam, I'll kick off with you. Uranium, up 18% this year.

Adam Dawes: Yes.

Vishal Teckchandani: Up 22% per annum in the last three years. Buy, hold, sell?

Uranium

Adam Dawes (BUY): Doesn't feel like it's been up 22% per annum. But anyway, yeah, look, it's a buy. I think uranium is certainly an energy that is going to be needed. It's seen to be green or at least be less polluting. And I think certainly a lot of businesses are looking for SMRs, which are small modular reactors to power their needs, especially for data centres and those kinds of things. And if you're going to ask me for an ETF in there, URNM. It's a Betashares one. And it has all of the global uranium miners in there. And it's a great way to diversify and get access to the uranium market.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Feeling the same way about uranium?

Michael Wayne (BUY): Yeah, absolutely. Doesn't feel like it's performed that well because I don't think the underlying uranium stocks have done that well.

Adam Dawes: My stocks haven’t done that well.

Michael Wayne: But yeah, to all the points that Adam made, there's a lot of approved, proposed reactors globally that have been built or in the pipeline to being built. In Australia, that isn't so much the case, but certainly globally there seems to be enormous tailwinds. And there's a big lag in the amount of supply coming online. So, a buy on uranium. The stock that I would put forward or an individual stock is NexGen, the Canadian based explorer. They've got a very large resource, which is yet to be developed and put into production. However, if they can get that thing into production, it's going to have extremely low costs relative to the competitors and could be a sensational investment. So, buy on uranium and NextGen as an individual name.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Bullish on uranium. Let's turn to defence stocks. Defence ETFs on the ASX up about 55% this year. It's been such a hot thematic. Buy, hold, sell?

Defence

Michael Wayne (SELL): I'm going to go a sell on this defence thematic. I think there is a lot of hot air in some of these companies. That's not to say that the companies haven't been performing well. It's just that at some point I think the rubber's going to have to hit the road, in that these contracts that have been supposedly signed have to start to generate revenue and cash flow to justify these very lofty valuations. In fact, it's not only the contracts that have been signed, it's that they have to keep replenishing the well, and winning more and more contracts to justify these prices. So, I'm going to go a sell on the broader space.

In terms of an individual defence exposed name that I quite like, it's Duratec. DUR is the code. Basically, they have a number of contracts across defence, across engineering, industrial space. But they're doing a lot of work in the defence space these days, maintaining ports, and repairing ports and those kind of things. So, that's something to keep an eye on, if you do want to have some exposure to that space.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. So Michael's feeling quite selective on defence, but surely with your 5% NATO spending uplift, you can keep replenishing those contracts. Buy, hold, sell?

Adam Dawes (BUY): Absolutely. And I think you've got these major countries around the world saying, "We spend 2% of our GDP, now we're going to have to spend five," or those kinds of things. So, there is that tailwind that is going to continue. I do agree with Michael, though, that that has to happen somehow, that that money needs to start, the contracts need to start flowing through to doing that. So, I'm going to stay with my buy recommendation on the defence side of things. And my ETF that I like is DFND. It's a VanEck defence one. It's got a lot of exposure to Europe. And I think Europe is going to be a key for defence spending going forward, especially with what's going on with Russia, Ukraine, and the troops starting to line up other borders. I think that is going to be needed. And I'm happy to stay on a buy for the defence stocks.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Our next ETF is also a supposed hedge against geopolitical volatility or theme, gold miners. Now, gold mining ETFs have done about 102% on the ASX this year. Buy, hold, sell?

Gold

Adam Dawes (HOLD): Well, we're obviously very bullish on gold. And I like the commodity and just the commodity versus the individual companies. I'm going to say it's a hold, because I prefer the commodity. But if you are going to look for global gold exposure, GDX I think is the stock code, which is the global miners and it's Vaneck one again. But it is all of the global miners put together, which gives you the diversification. So, you're getting the Newmonts, you're getting all the big guys, Barrick and all those kinds of things in there, which is exactly what you need. So, yeah, it's a hold, but my preferred one is GDX.

Vishal Teckchandani: Michael, Adam's going to let the golden bull run. Are you? Buy, hold, sell?

Michael Wayne (BUY): Yes, I'm going to go buy. I do think the producers, the gold producers can really outperform the underlying gold price this year. Historically, it's pretty interesting that often it takes a number of years after the underlying gold price peaks for the producers to reach their share price peak. Often, the market doubts whether the rivers of gold are going to actually flow through to the coffers of these companies. And over time, eventually the market catches up with the gold price being so high and the profits that start to come through. So, GDX is a decent exposure. But broadly speaking, we like the gold producer space, generally would have a buy on it.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Same with you, Michael. Bitcoin. Now, it hasn't done that well this year, but it did do well at some point. And it's still up, I think about 400% over the past five years. It has delivered strong returns. Buy, hold, sell?

Bitcoin

Michael Wayne (HOLD): I'm going to go a hold on Bitcoin. I must admit it's not an area that I'm overly familiar with. But if you are looking to get exposure to cryptocurrencies, I think the safest bet is to play the behemoth in the room and that being Bitcoin. So, if you want to have some exposure, Bitcoin is the play. So, I'm going to go a hold at the moment. I don't really understand why there's been so much pressure on the Bitcoin price. So, I would probably prefer gold exposure, but I can see it having a place in the portfolio potentially as a diversification.

Vishal Teckchandani: Well, mate, if anyone can understand it, I will give them a medal. Adam, buy, hold, sell?

Adam Dawes (HOLD): I echo a lot of Michael, what he's saying. It is an asset class. And I think now, more than ever, it is an asset class. Whereas a couple of years ago, they were like, "No, no, no. It's fledgling and things like that." So, this is actually now sitting up. There are a lot of institutions, governments and all those kinds of things that own Bitcoin. For me, it's a hold also. I just don't know where it's going. It is volatile. But any new industry, it is always going to be volatile, so you just have to buckle up and go for the ride as it were. So, a good ETF that I use is VBTC. And that's a VanEck one again, but it is more correlated to the Bitcoin price than any of the other ones. So, it's a hold from me.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. So, let's also turn to another very popular risk asset. Well, the most popular risk asset. It is the Nasdaq 100, the representation and the epitome of tech stocks. Buy, hold, sell?

Nasdaq 100

Adam Dawes (HOLD): With the Magnificent 7 owning... Or what was it? 60% of revenue is pretty much what's doing all of the heavy lifting. I think we've got to be a little bit careful this next year coming up. I saw a figure the other day in 1960, AT&T was 13% of the index or the American market. And then we all know how that all ended. So, I just feel that we've got too much concentration in there. Nasdaq I'm very comfortable with, so it's a hold from me. I think that it will continue to move. But as Michael said, we need to get these other stocks, the other 100, in the S&P, the other 493 to actually do something. And that will then provide the impetus for markets to continue to move. So, it's still a hold for me on the Nasdaq.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Does it feel the same way, Michael?

Michael Wayne (HOLD): Yeah. It's a hold for the Nasdaq. It's had an incredible run. It'll likely have a decent year again next year, but based on all probability. But I do think that the risks are starting to increase, because these companies need to continue delivering to justify the expectations. In saying that, I think the Magnificent 7 have started to diverge somewhat in that they're not all very expensive, so that is something to consider. And they're not all exposed to exactly the same thematics. So, there is a chance, and we started to see this play out this year, where some of the Mag 7 perform really well while others get left behind and vice versa. So, we're still optimistic for the outlook for the Nasdaq, but would have a hold on it. Unless we get that broad-based breadth in the market, I don't see it roaring ahead.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. And Australian small-caps. Buy, hold, sell?

Aussie small caps

Michael Wayne (BUY): Going a buy. Australian small-caps is very, very broad, though. And a lot of interesting exposures and mining exposures. So, our preferred way of playing it is... And it's one of these nuances within the Australia market. There are a lot of active managers that focus on the small-cap Aussie market have actually managed to outperform their benchmark consistently over three, five, 10 years. So, this is an area of the market that we do like. We think there's a lot of opportunity. It's relatively cheap, but I think you need to be pretty active in your selections within this space.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Michael's completely right. It is a very selective area to play in. Non-small ordinaries itself, up 20% this year compared to I think about 8-10 for the broader market. Buy, hold, sell?

Adam Dawes: Finally, the smalls are starting to move.

Vishal Teckchandani: Finally.

Adam Dawes (BUY): And generally, in markets, the large-caps move, then there's no value there, so then they go to the mid-caps, and then there's no value there. Then the small-caps start to run. So, finally, we're getting some of that small-cap exposure starting to move. So, it's a buy from me as well. I think you want to have a manager in there that's someone that knows what they're doing. Yes, small-cap managers might have 10 stocks, seven of them are going to fail. One's going to break even, and then two are going to absolutely kill it. So, you can't do that by yourself. You need to have somebody in there or a manager in there to do that for you. And I think that's the proper way to do it. Instead of just trying to pick these small-caps, and then waking up the next day and it's down 50%, you're like, "What the hell happened?" I think you need to have a manager or somebody in there to look at those for you.

Guest picks

Vishal Teckchandani: Now, Adam and Michael have agreed to reveal their top investment theme and the ETF or investment to play. Adam, what is your top investment theme for 2026?

Copper

Adam Dawes: All right. So, for me it's copper. I think we've talked about it all this year, how amazing copper is going to be. I think it has still got a long way to run. And I still feel that copper, certainly in the Australian market, is going to do very, very well, as well as globally. The shortfall is always there. For me, the ETF that covers that is WIRE, and that has all of the global copper miners in there. It has the Australian guys in there as well, and it's a great diversification tool. It's done very well also, but I think WIRE is one of those ones for the copper thematic for 2026 will do very well.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Michael, I'm glad I asked Adam first, because it is down to the wire with you.

Australian quality growth

Michael Wayne: So, the theme that we think will have a decent run next year is Australian quality growth. So, we've seen a mini bear market of sorts playing out in a hidden pocket of the market, if you like, where a lot of very high quality, classic compounders type businesses have been pulling back 10, 15, 30% in some cases. And you can include names like TechnologyOne, Xero, Pro Medicus, even things like ResMed. And there's a plethora of names, realestate.com, Carsales, that have pulled back a long, long way. And it has really not a great deal to do with the underlying performance or fundamentals of those businesses. There's just been a revaluation of sorts. And as the market tends to, it gets excited on the upside, but overly pessimistic on the downside. And we think that a bit of the rotation that's been playing out has gone too far one way.

So, we wouldn't be surprised if next year replicates similar to what we saw in 2016 and 2017, where these names have, although they've sold off significantly, they're still ultra-high quality, still growing well above market rates. And you'll start to see some flows come back into those names. So, that is the area of the market that we like. And the ETF that will capture that theme pretty well is the ATEC ETF.

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Well, every Christmas tree has a few stars and hopefully this episode of Buy Hold Sell helped you identify which ones will keep shining in 2026. Michael, Adam, thank you so much for your time.

Adam Dawes: Thank you.

Michael Wayne: Thanks for having me.

Vishal Teckchandani: I hope you enjoyed this episode. Please don't forget to like this video and follow our new Instagram channel, @BuyHoldSellpodcast. From all of us here at Livewire and our friends from the financial services industry, we wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.