Chart of the Week - China property market

Callum Thomas

Topdown Charts

China Property Prices: The Chinese property market downturn extended through January, with the majority of cities seeing prices fall vs December, and close to 50% of cities seeing house prices decline vs this time last year. On top of that, the composite leading indicator (money supply, interest rates, property stocks) continues to point to further downside for property prices.

I remain of the view that this is perhaps the most important chart for China macro, emerging markets, and commodities. It highlights the risks and downdrafts currently facing the Chinese economy, but also points to the imperative for policy easing.

With Chinese inflation gauges beginning to taper off, clear softening in the macro pulse (+wobbles in the global growth picture), and downside risks to property… along with the fact that this is basically an “election year” for Xi Jinping (his 3rd 5-year term is scheduled to be confirmed later this year — stability is top of mind): all signs point to more stimulus.

Key point: Expect stepped-up monetary/fiscal/credit stimulus in China this year.

Never miss an insight

Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. Stay up to date with my content by hitting the ‘follow’ button below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire.

Not already a Livewire member? Sign up today to get free access to investment ideas and strategies from Australia’s leading investors.

Callum Thomas
Head of Research
Topdown Charts

Callum is Head of Research at Topdown Charts. Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global Asset Allocation and Economics.

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.


Please sign in to comment on this wire.

trending on livewire
Get the best of Livewire by signing up to our popular daily newsletter