Credit Suisse analysts continue to view China as the biggest source of macro risk

Credit Suisse analysts continue to view China as the biggest source of macro risk. The Analysts say that despite a number of key macro indicators improving (PMIs, macro surprises), others have not. Three areas have deteriorated: the job offer to applicant ratio is at an all-time high (implying a shortage of manual workers); producer prices are falling (nominal GDP growth was just 7.9% in Q1); and, above all, property prices are now falling (real estate accounts for a fifth of GDP and half of bank collateral).