Down 45% with double-digit growth. Why this fundie is buying an ASX opportunity

When a stock falls 45%, something usually breaks. Sometimes, it’s just expectations.

That’s the opportunity Sam Cox is leaning into right now. As sentiment resets and the bar for performance drops, he’s adding selectively to businesses where growth remains intact, but the market is no longer pricing perfection.

Cox is an Analyst at Eiger Capital with seven years’ experience across funds management and advisory, having previously worked at Ethical Partners, Knightsbridge Wealth Management and Baker Young. His approach reflects a balance of valuation discipline and an understanding of how quickly markets can overshoot.

This week’s Q&A captures a market driven by rotations, macro uncertainty and shifting positioning. Cox is using that dislocation to identify where the hurdle to outperform has quietly fallen.

In this wire, he outlines what he’s adding, what he’s watching, and how he’s navigating a market where price moves are being driven more by sentiment than underlying business performance.

What’s your most recent investment and why?

Added a small position in Netwealth Limited (ASX: NWL) to the portfolio. 

The stock is down approximately ~45% since its highs in August 2025, lowering the bar for net flows to justify the share price in our model. 

The company is delivering mid to high teens EPS growth and has strong tailwinds from increased SMSF creation and the proliferation of managed accounts. Beta positions have been treated harshly in the current market turmoil, and we are looking to selectively add positions where the fundamentals remain intact.

Which investment did you add to your watchlist this week?

Arena REIT (ASX: ARF) has been impacted by negative sentiment in the childcare sector; in particular, listed peers who are underperforming the broader childcare industry. 

Arena is an actively managed portfolio of high-quality childcare centres, currently operating at a low rent-to-sales ratio, backstopped by a strong secondary market. 

The sentiment could turn in the short- to medium-term, coupled with a change in interest rate outlook, proving these levels to be a good entry point into a well-managed REIT with triple net leases, an 18-year WALE, and a strong development pipeline.

What is the most recent investment you have trimmed or sold and what drove this decision?

Sold DPM Metals (ASX: DPM) following a strong run. The stock reverse listed on the ASX in 2025 to minimal fanfare through the cash and scrip merger with Adriatic Metals (ADT). It has a very low cost-base, in-part due to its copper by-product and exposure to silver. 

The business is well capitalised to fund its development pipeline with $498m in cash and no debt, which we expect will see the company almost double its AuEq ounce production in the next 5-years. 

However, the parabolic move in the silver price necessitated a profit-taking exercise in the short term.

What’s your favourite chart or data point from this week?

USD/CNY to copper price ratio. Highlights the level of volatility in global markets. 

The ratio has decoupled in the last two weeks as Chinese copper inventories surged, and the market has begun pricing a global slowdown. 

At the same time, there has been a reversal in the USD debasement trade, placing broader pressure on commodities, including gold.

What was your weekly high – a standout market moment or highlight?

Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX: TLX) has had a strong last two weeks, resubmitting its NDA for Pixclara to the FDA, and reporting the highly anticipated safety data for its prostate cancer drug TLX591. 

The company can now move towards the second part of its ProstACT Global Phase 3 trial, which, if successful, will bridge the company from medical imaging to therapeutics, unlocking substantial upside in the stock.

What was your weekly low – a market disappointment or challenge?

The continued whipsaw in markets from the war in Iran. While we hope for a swift end to the conflict, it is clear there will be longer-term issues that will maintain pressure on central banks to fight multiple rounds of cost-push inflation.

What first drew you to markets and what continues to keep you inspired today?

I’ve always found markets intensely interesting. No two companies are the same, and the accumulation of knowledge is highly rewarding. 

The market structure continues to change, and it is clear that managers need to adapt to maintain their edge.

What’s one piece of advice you’d give to new investors?

Invest your time in doing the work on companies. 

Your investing success will be judged in difficult times when short-handed thematic work will not suffice. 

Without an understanding of a company’s balance sheet, competitive moat, and cash flow, you will lack the conviction required when prices drop.

How do you unwind when you’re not thinking about the market?

I wouldn’t call it good for unwinding, but I have recently gotten into sim racing. It’s a great alternative when you don’t always have time to make it to a racetrack. I also enjoy watching Formula 1 and the Australian Supercars series.

Rapid fire! 🔥

Favourite investing book?

The Money Miners by Trevor Sykes – a practical and in-depth review of the Poseidon bubble.

Favourite investing or finance/markets-related podcast?

I prefer more durable information such as business essays. For example, the Asianometry YouTube channel.

The first thing you read each morning?

Various morning notes covering stocks in the fund, followed by a US news aggregator that compiles macro commentary.

Favourite restaurant?

Moretti’s in Leichhardt.

Something people are surprised to learn about you?

I am about to have my first child, so I am going to be the one surprised.*

*Since this interview, Sam has welcomed a baby boy.

Think there’s a better pick? Prove it. Share your rapid-fire book, podcast, and daily read in the comments.

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