Forecasts of weakening iron ore prices have proven overly pessimistic but had generally been based on an assumption that the make-up of China's GDP growth would switch from a heavy reliance on investment spending to more emphasis on consumption. For all the talk among commentators, led by the spin from China's leadership, the switch has not been happening. Investment spending and steel output have been growing faster than the overall economy. What will happen when the spending switch actually occurs? That will be the telling event for the iron ore price.