How avoiding red flags can save your portfolio & 5 more lessons

Markets may look calm on the surface, but the 2025 nabtrade investor event told a more complex story. 

I was lucky enough to attend this year's events, where leading voices shared perspectives that cut through the noise and challenged old assumptions. 

Below are key takeaways from six standout speakers — Sally Auld (NAB), Jay Sivapalan (Janus Henderson), Gary Monaghan (Fidelity International), Dr David Allen (Plato Investments), Damien Boey (WAM Income Maximiser) and Anthony Doyle (Pinnacle Investment).

• Red-flag discipline and portfolio balance beat chasing fads. 
• Stability doesn’t erase policy risks. 
• Bonds now rival dividends, and 
• Asia hides mispriced gems. 

Investors were urged to stay nimble — diversify, respect market plumbing, and ride liquidity tailwinds without over-concentrating.

Together, their insights form a roadmap for staying grounded yet opportunistic.

Sally Auld, Group Chief Economist, NAB

Despite global jitters, NAB Group Chief Economist Sally Auld says Australia is quietly landing in rare economic territory. Growth is re-accelerating toward trend, inflation is almost back inside the RBA's 2-3% band, and unemployment sits near full employment, conditions she called "basically a soft landing" and "the holy grail" for economists. 

NAB’s real-time data shows household spending, credit growth, and business conditions improving after a mid-year inflection. Even Victoria, a recent underperformer, is recovering. Consumers, still cautious after cost-of-living shocks, are using easing rates to pay down debt, reinforcing financial resilience.

Globally, Auld warns of fractures: China faces slowing demand, property woes, and deflation; the US risks political interference with its central bank and worsening inflation. She argues Australia’s stable democracy and credible institutions make it an attractive destination for capital. Yet valuations are rich and risks remain.

"Markets are expensive, fully valued, and not really pricing in much in the way of uncertainty," she cautioned. 

Auld also flagged structural challenges at home:

"Important for Australia to make sure we work towards long-term solutions for both housing policy and energy policy. The latter is very important - economies with relatively low energy costs will be at a natural advantage as we continue transition away from carbon-intensive energy sources".

For investors, Australia's stability is appealing, but prudent positioning and attention to policy risks remain essential. 

Jay Sivapalan: defensive assets deliver

Australian fixed income is no longer the sleepy corner of markets. As Jay Sivapalan, Head of Australian Fixed Interest, at Janus Henderson, told nabtrade investors, 

“We’ve found ourselves in this unique moment where the typical yield from fixed interest is quite similar – in fact a little bit higher – than dividend yields in share markets.” 

That changes the calculus for anyone balancing growth and stability.

Sivapalan reminded investors that bonds are ballast: they “tends to go up in value versus growth assets like shares and property that tend to go down in value” during downturns. 

But today’s environment offers more than just protection. With Australian credit quality among the world’s strongest and spreads elevated, local bonds can pay investors better for less risk compared to overseas markets.

He highlighted opportunities in state government debt. Queensland bonds recently offered more than 1% extra yield over federal paper, and in essential infrastructure like Melbourne Airport or Centre Group shopping centres delivering near-6% yields plus capital gains.

For most individuals, he said, active bond ETFs provide diversification and professional credit screening without the pitfalls of picking single issues. In a low equity-risk-premium world, fixed income deserves a fresh look.

ETF

Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Active ETF (JFIX)

Australian Fixed Income

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Gary Monaghan: finding mispriced opportunities in Asia

Asia may be volatile, but Gary Monaghan, Investment Director at Fidelity International, argues it’s too big to ignore. 

“Asia is about 40% of the population, 25% of GDP, [and] half of the world’s growth… by 2040 that 15 year time horizon is going to move from around 25% to 40% of GDP".

Yet global markets still allocate less than 10% there. For long-term investors, that mismatch is a tailwind.

But Monaghan insists the real opportunity lies in mispriced stocks. Galaxy Entertainment (HKSE: 0027) is one example: its shares sank to $25 despite rebounding gaming revenues and rising Macau market share. With the stock now back in the low $40s, he noted:

“That to us is the mispriced opportunity." 

Tencent (HKSE: 0700), with its billion daily users, also illustrates the point. Initially overlooked, Fidelity moved decisively when tariff headlines drove shares lower, despite zero U.S. exposure, betting on its ability to monetise AI through targeted advertising.

Fuyao Glass (HKSE: 3606) followed a similar pattern, sold off on tariff fears even though most of its U.S. production is domestic.

For Monaghan, these examples prove why a concentrated, active approach works in Asia: volatility and misperceptions consistently open windows for patient investors. Those willing to ride the bumps may find Asia’s next decade hard to beat.

ETF

Fidelity Asia Active ETF (FASI)

Global Shares

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Dr. Dave Allen: How avoiding red flags can save your portfolio

For Dr David Allen of Plato Investments, the edge isn’t chasing the latest theme but blending value, growth, and quality into a resilient portfolio. 

“We definitely believe in balance in your portfolios… roughly a third value, a third growth, a third quality at all times”.

On the value front, J.P.Morgan (NYSE: JPM) looks compelling, trading at just 15x earnings versus Commonwealth (ASX: CBA) Bank’s 30x despite stronger margins and capital strength. 

In growth, Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) has compounded free cash flow at 20% annually for a decade — “it’s companies that have had a consistent track record of growing free cashflow organically… and no one’s done that better than Salesforce”. 

And in quality, Rolls-Royce (NYSE: RYCEY) has been a standout as Europe lifts defence spending from 2% of GDP toward 5%.

Allen also sees opportunity in shorts. Guzman y Gomez (ASX: GYG) was recently targeted for “extreme valuation” alongside weak sentiment and poor audit quality. 

Meanwhile, Plato’s red flag system — 150 indicators built from past corporate blow-ups — has made shorting a consistent source of outperformance, with companies showing eight or more warnings underperforming by 20% over 12 months.

The message is clear: in volatile markets, balance and discipline matter most.

ETF

Plato Global Alpha Complex ETF (PGA1)

Global Shares

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Damien Boey: Why the old rules of investing may no longer be true

Markets look serene, but the real action is happening beneath the surface. Damien Boey, Portfolio Strategist, WAM Income Maximiser, urged investors to think in terms of style “baskets”—momentum, value, quality, and growth—as shortcuts for navigating a complex cycle.

“Understand the shape of the uncertainty you’re confronted with."

He said, noting that confidence in any style depends on inflation, interest rates, and the plumbing of the financial system.

Boey highlighted how tight credit spreads, suppressed by leverage and liquidity, disguise risks: 

“The absence of counterparty credit risk… is actually what is driving down spreads.” 

This has created a gigantic carry trade that keeps bond yields artificially low, forcing bonds and equities to move together. That erodes diversification, meaning investors now “actually want a higher bond yield to compensate” for lost protection.

Against that backdrop, Boey sees selective opportunities. Over the long term, value is improving as the gap between cheap and expensive stocks widens. In the near term, growth may wobble if bond yields rise, opening tactical trades. 

For Australian investors, he flagged commodities and housing as standout themes: BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) as beneficiaries of resource demand, and housing-linked names like Seven Group Holdings (ASX: SGH) and property developers as credit growth accelerates. 

The message? Stay nimble and position where the plumbing still flows.

Anthony Doyle: tailwinds for Alpha

Markets are riding a wave of lower interest rates and robust government spending, and Anthony Doyle, Chief Investment Strategist at Pinnacle Investment, believes equities still look attractive. 

“Central banks around the world are cutting interest rates materially…this is a wall of liquidity hitting equity and bond markets.” 

Noting how this backdrop has powered returns for Hyperion’s portfolio of global names like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Meta (NASDAQ: META), Costco (NASDAQ: COST) and Spotify (NYSE: SPOT).

He warned against over-concentration: the ASX 200’s top ten stocks represent 50% of the index. Diversification—across regions, sectors and styles—is essential. 

Doyle also flagged traps in passive investing with COVID darlings such as Peloton (NASDAQ: PTON), Beyond Meat (NASDAQ: BYND) and PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) have all fallen 75–90% from their peaks, while even household names like Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), Nestlé (SWX: NESN), and Louis Vuitton (OTCMKTS: LVMHF) have recently stumbled.

Inflation remains subdued by central bank standards, government spending is still robust—from U.S. stimulus to European defence budgets—and labour markets are tight while oil prices have eased. Against this backdrop, Doyle argues that equities remain attractive, with interest rates settling near 3% and fiscal taps wide open. 

The risk, he says, lies in waiting for the perfect entry point: history shows that “investing at an all-time high has generated a higher average total return than investing at any other point.” Instead, investors should stay diversified and forward-looking. 

Opportunities are emerging beyond mega-caps, with smaller companies and European equities showing stronger earnings growth, while infrastructure, defence, and quality growth stocks offer resilience. 

For Doyle, the keys to navigating this cycle are long-term horizons, active stock-picking, and maintaining enough liquidity for ballast—rather than trying to time the market.

Use the insights gained from the nabtrade Investor Room on the upcoming Charity Trading Day which will take place on 18 November 2025. On this day, nabtrade will donate 80% of the brokerage fees from every trade to a chosen charity, and the remaining 20% will be donated to causes run by our partners at the ASX, who support a wide range of charities through the ASX Refinitiv Foundation.