How to model the timing of a US recession

Livewire Exclusive

Livewire Markets

There's been a fair bit of talk about a pending US recession. Much of this chatter has been fueled by simple analysis of the slope of the yield curve, which is widely viewed as a strong predictor of recession. What this analysis doesn't do, however, is provide any information on the timing of when a recession might occur. The fixed income team at Schroders have developed a 24-point model that combines a range of indicators each with a 'best-fit' of time to a recession. In this short video Stuart Dear, Deputy Head of Fixed Income at Schroders Australia, provides an example of how their recession modelling works and explains what it is telling them right now. 

 

Enjoy that?

You can read further insights and analysis from Schroders Fixed Income team here

 


2 contributors mentioned

Livewire Exclusive brings you exclusive content from a wide range of leading fund managers and investment professionals.

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.