With an escalating trade war, quantitative easing over, and China slowing down, market risk is running high. So when we sat down with global manager, Peter Rutter, Head of Global Equities at Royal London Asset Management, we asked for his take on the biggest risk to markets would be next... Show More
Warren Buffett once said: “When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they’re the first thing I open and read. I always learn something.” Earlier this week, Marks held an AMA (ask me anything) for investors. Here are some of the key takeaways of this dialogue with one... Show More
With rates marching higher in the US, higher risk asset classes such as emerging market equities are seeing rising volatility. As risk reprices across the market, this will cause problems for weaker companies and countries. There’s one group in particular that faces significant challenges, explains Alex Duffy, Portfolio Manager at... Show More
Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital has recently released his updated view on the current market environment. The view of Oaktree is interesting, as they invest across most asset classes and in every part of the capital structure. Show More
This bull market is now one of the oldest on record, yet reasons to be wary of it are growing. We sat down with Matthew Haupt, Portfolio Manager at Wilson Asset Management to get his perspective on how much longer investors have left to make hay. Matt told us... Show More
In Australia today, growth is forecast to be around 2.5%, commodity prices are stable, jobs are strong, and inflation is low and stable. But in the background, risks are rising, explains Chris Rands from Nikko Asset Management. “The biggest risk that’s sitting there is the house price situation... The flow-through effect... Show More
Being able to measure and monitor the true level of mortgage delinquencies across an economy is essential for investors and regulators interested in asset pricing and financial system stability, amongst other things. Prior to the 2008 global financial crisis, rising mortgage default rates in the United States were an important... Show More
For the last two calendar years, the Australian dollar has defied our expectations for weakness. But after hitting $US0.81 in January it’s been trending down as US interest rates fell below the Australian cash rate, the threat of a US-driven trade war increased and it recently broke below a short-term... Show More
A group of factors that supported the equity bull market for almost a decade, including excess liquidity, low volatility, and low rates, are now unwinding in a synchronised fashion. Show More
If there’s one thing the market’s not short of, it’s noise. With newsreels looking for a quick sugar hit, it’s easy to get clouted in the latest headlines. For investors, this raises many questions. Is inflation coming back? Are bond yields going to take off on a tear? What will... Show More
There's been a fair bit of talk about a pending US recession. Much of this chatter has been fueled by simple analysis of the slope of the yield curve, which is widely viewed as a strong predictor of recession. What this analysis doesn't do, however, is provide any information on... Show More
One of the more curious things about World Cup fever infecting the planet is the sudden authority by which previous novices now espouse their views and share colourful commentary on a sport that hasn’t been of interest for the prior three years and 48 weeks. For four sweet weeks every... Show More
There is an endless list of risks for investors to consider. But if we acted on every one of them, we’d never stay invested. To help isolate the key risks to consider in the current market, we asked two fund managers what's keeping them up at night right now. Ben... Show More
The Bank Bill – Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) spread is a keenly watched risk measure in fixed income markets that has experienced a significant widening in recent months, both in Australia and in overseas markets (where LIBOR is the equivalent rate to the Aussie bank bill rate). Show More
Over the past month our leading indicators of the industrial cycle have shown signs of peaking. The real question is whether this suggests the industrial cycle is merely temporarily interrupted and rapid global growth will soon return; whether we are through the fastest phase of acceleration in the cycle, and... Show More
This week it's gold and real yields. A really important thing happened with interest rates in November last year which should be front of mind for investors thinking about gold. It is a reasonably well established understanding that gold prices trade inversely to real yields, and I'll explain why shortly.... Show More
Twenty-six years of uninterrupted economic expansion. Australia’s recent performance is now unmatched in history. While a handful of factors have been key to this outcome, without doubt, the floating of the Australian dollar in December 1983 was one of the most critical. According to former Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)... Show More
Drawdowns are an inevitable part of investing; even Berkshire Hathaway fell by more than 50% during the GFC. As growth investors, Nick Griffin from Munro Partners, says that it’s important to protect yourself both against stock specific risks, and market risks. Here, he explains their approach. Show More
If Australia has an Achille’s heal it’s the high and still rising level of household debt that has gone hand in hand with the surge in house prices relative to incomes. Whereas several comparable countries have seen their household debt to income ratios pull back a bit since the Global... Show More
Although confronted with a maturing growth cycle and the likelihood of more modest returns, the catalysts typically leading to past downturns appear largely absent - such as sharply tighter monetary or fiscal policy and financial crises. Notwithstanding our sense that 2018 is a year to stay positive, we have highlighted... Show More