Global Recession

Trump’s pivot on fiscal and trade policy has changed our macro view. We no longer expect a recession - here’s why we’ve turned bullish.

The US is redrawing the trade map. China’s not backing down. Investors should brace for impact.

Australians may have less to fear from activities in the US than we realise.

But rest assured, even this perma-bear has found good news in a world riddled with problems.

And where will the Australian Dollar end the year? Find out the answer to this and other questions in the next episode of Signal or Noise!

Could the economy be dodging a recession? New data suggests a softer outcome might be on the horizon

The onset of the pandemic led to a presumption that housing arrears would increase significantly. So why did they end up declining?

We pushed back our recession call to the end of 2023 or first quarter of 2024, despite our US recession probability model remaining high.

If you thought 2022 was hard, 2023 has started even harder. But Shane Oliver of AMP argues the one-year view is better than it sounds.

Commodities have surged recently despite global recession forebodings. Tribeca’s Ben Cleary shares his short and long-term views.