Global Recession

The onset of the pandemic led to a presumption that housing arrears would increase significantly. So why did they end up declining?

We pushed back our recession call to the end of 2023 or first quarter of 2024, despite our US recession probability model remaining high.

If you thought 2022 was hard, 2023 has started even harder. But Shane Oliver of AMP argues the one-year view is better than it sounds.

Commodities have surged recently despite global recession forebodings. Tribeca’s Ben Cleary shares his short and long-term views.

First Sentier Investors’ asset class experts share their ideas about what’s ahead in 2023. 

Citi and Morgan Stanley are both out with their 2023 commodities outlook pieces. I read through all 200+ pages of it so you don't have to.

China Stimulus: This week the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut their benchmark monetary policy interest rate by 5 basis points to 3.65% (and reduced the 5-year...

They say that numbers don't lie - but no one ever said that numbers can't be confusing. The signals for a global recession have been mixed, to say the least. On the...

Over the last two decades there has been a meteoric rise of private equity. In Australia alone, there is some $77bn in private markets, with private equity and...

Rate Hikes on the Frontier of the Global Economy: This is one of my favorite charts, and one that helped get us onto the right side of the global policy pivot that...

In the AFR I write that in December and early January this column repeatedly warned investors to prepare their portfolios for an interest rate shock that would force...

In today's investment webinar, Nucleus Wealth's Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith, Head of Investments Damien Klassen, and Head of Advice Tim Fuller are joined...

Are Robinhood & Robots responsible for the stockmarket recovery? Kevin Muir (The Macro Tourist) joins us today to to offer his take on the driving forces behind the...

Is it safe to say it’s over? I think so. It’s possible the recovery has been too far, too fast. Markets could very easily fall from here. But the economy is already...

‘Risk-off’ has been the flavour so far this week. Overnight, US Federal Reserve Chair Powell dismissed all talk of turning to negative rates to address a downturn...

The blanket coverage of coronavirus and its impact on the economy can lead to a lot of confusion right now. Some reports are hopeful of anti-viral drugs, others say a...

It hardly seems like a few of weeks ago that we were considering the imminent spread of COVID-19 outside of China and to the rest of the world. While the reaction of...

Last week, Wilson Asset Management hosted their 2020 investor conference call. Chairman and CIO, Geoff Wilson used the opportunity to talk about market volatility, and...

(Ed note: first published October 2019): By now, the situation is clear. Many economies are gradually slowing down or have already entered a recession (think European...

Let’s start by reviewing what the yield curve actually is. Consider a range of durations for government notes, for example, you can have 3-month notes, 1-year notes,...