In a market full of contradictions, Ophir continues to find success

Please note, this interview was recorded Friday 31 October 2025

As someone who’s spent years speaking with fund managers, I’ve learned that true stockpickers see the world differently. They thrive in the grey zones where data, experience, and instinct collide. Ophir Asset Management's Andrew Mitchell embodies that mix. 

When I sat down with Mitchell, our conversation roamed from yield curves and small caps to the micro edges that separate good investors from great ones. His perspective was refreshing because it wasn’t about bold predictions or looking in the rear-view mirror. It was grounded in process, a relentless focus on the things that can go wrong as much as the things that can go right.

As he put it:

“I’m a paranoid person. There’s a great book written about CEOs, "Only the Paranoid Survive". I’m particularly paranoid. I think things are about to blow up every single day.”

That mindset, constantly scanning for blind spots and hunting for an information edge, is what drives Ophir’s success. It's also a mindset that has seen the Ophir Opportunities Fund rise to number one in its category in the Morningstar performance rankings on a 1, 2, 3, 7, 10 and since-inception basis. The fund has returned 24.5% p.a. since its 2012 inception.

Mitchell’s approach blends hard data with deep channel checks, from talking to Bundesliga coaches about Catapult’s (ASX: CAT) technology to modelling Life360’s (ASX: 360) adoption curves across US states. He’s not chasing noise; he’s piecing together a mosaic that others might overlook.

Our discussion revealed a thoughtful investor who’s both cautious and creative, one who studies credit spreads and yield curves as carefully as he analyses individual company drivers. And beneath that layer of caution lies a real enthusiasm for the hunt, for turning over rocks until he finds something that glints.

INTERVIEW SUMMARY

Reading the market’s mixed signals

Mitchell describes the current investing environment as full of contradictions. The yield curve is stable, but US consumer stocks are breaking down. Transport stocks are doing well, which he views as a forward-looking sign of business confidence. 

“We’re getting mixed messages,” he says. 

“Biotechs are doing very well. AI is doing incredibly well. The short basket - hedge funds that are short the market - are covering. But they’re not necessarily things that are giving me huge confidence.”

Still, he notes that valuations outside the mega-cap leaders are far more appealing. “Globally, stocks outside of those Mag Seven are a lot cheaper than they historically have been,” he says. “So it’s a good spot for us stockpickers to be.”

Watching the red lines

While Mitchell doesn’t rely solely on macro indicators, he pays attention to the ones that matter. Credit spreads, in particular, act as his early warning system. “There were some wobbles with regional banks up the west coast of America and some lending into the property sector,” he says. “But not to levels that have previously been all-bets-off territory.”

He’s alert to potential cracks but refuses to paint a purely bearish picture. Instead, he sees opportunity in the parts of the market that have lagged. 

“If this market really catches fire, there’s a lot of catch-up from cyclicals and smaller companies,” he says. “It’s a very interesting point in the market.”

Process, paranoia and performance

When asked about Ophir’s recent award for Best Australian Small Companies Manager, Mitchell laughs that such recognition can sometimes be “the kiss of death.” Awards, he says, can create complacency. 

“We’re always looking for our blind spots,” he explains. “I’m a paranoid person. I think things are about to blow up every single day.”

That vigilance extends to Ophir's focus on “batting average,” the percentage of months their funds outperform. “We don’t get it right all the time, but you need to be outperforming in the majority of the months. It’s that consistency that builds long-term returns.”

Stockpicking at the edge

Mitchell lights up when talking about the hunt for an informational edge. For Life360, he and his team tracked adoption rates across US states, mapped growth trajectories, and even discovered that its upcoming pet tracker, sold via the website rather than the app, could boost margins by 30% because it bypasses Apple’s platform fees. “That’s just one little edge that we have,” he says.

The same diligence applies to Catapult. Through conversations with Bundesliga and Premier League teams, Ophir discovered a major gap in Catapult’s offering: the lack of a scouting product. When the company later acquired a top-tier Bundesliga-focused platform, via IMPECT, Mitchell saw it as transformational. 

“This is the best acquisition this company’s made,” he says. “It solves the problem that’s been holding them back and turns them into a potential category killer.”

The thrill of discovery

For Mitchell, the true satisfaction in investing doesn’t come from the eventual share price move. “The best is neither the hunt nor the reward,” he says. 

“It’s the kill when you’ve worked out an edge.

That excitement, the moment insight crystallises before the rest of the market catches on, is what drives him. “If it’s going up at this stage, you’re not first to the information,” he says. “It’s not the hunting because that can be frustrating. It’s when you turn over that rock and all of a sudden you see gold.”

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