In Search Of A New Market Consensus

The loss of certainty about the Fed's first rate hike is causing more damage to financial markets than meets the eye. We can all have a good laugh about how wrong market consensus can be at times, but what's a market with no consensus? Confused. Divided. Directionless. Bearish. We now see it every day. No consensus is no conviction. No conviction means time to focus on what can go wrong. Credit Suisse's observation following recent visits to institutional clients around the world sums it up best: "Never have we seen so many clients who just do not know what is happening and have cashed up". Meanwhile, Citi's market sentiment indicator suggests bearishness rules. Is it a contrarian signal for investment returns ahead? Further in my Weekly Insights: why has McMillan Shakespeare (MMS) been left behind when all peers have proven popular? Plus insurers to benefit from El Nino's arrival this year. (VIEW LINK)

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