Sentiment describes overall investor attitude and the consensus opinion towards a market or stock. It might seem a little vague, and yet used correctly, it is a powerful tool for deciding whether to buy or sell. In fact, it’s one of the five different investment drivers, along with valuations, cycle,... Show More
The Euphoriameter rose again in July, with the combined sentiment reading for the S&P500 lifted by higher forward PE ratios, a falling VIX, and rising levels of bullish sentiment in the surveys. The chart will probably trigger memories or comparisons to the 1990's because aside from the surge coming out... Show More
The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index data for July showed a distinct sense of upside capitulation. The headline global index was up 7.9 points to 108.9 - this was driven purely by North American institutional investors with the North Am index up 10pts to 112.1 which offset declines in... Show More
The attached chart from the Macro Technicals report shows average speculative futures positioning across commodities against a popular broad commodities index. The bottom line is commodity net-longs are the most stretched they've been in 12 years. Show More
Here's the latest weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm. In this edition I include a broad mix of charts with some flagging bearish signals, and others presenting a more bullish case. They include: 50-day moving average breadth, an interesting analog chart, a couple of views of investor sentiment, the implications of the CBOE... Show More
Recently I was asked where we are in the cycle of investor emotion between the extremes of “euphoria” and “depression”. This is a good question, as knowing where the investment crowd is at and being wary of it is essential to successful investing. The 1980s Japanese bubble, the Asian miracle... Show More
Australian investors have responded to the seven week rally in local equities by becoming even more cautious. Results from the Australian Investors' Sentiment Survey in May, organised by Australian Investors' Association (AIA) and FNArena, suggest current levels of cautiousness haven't been seen since early 2012. To get acquainted with the... Show More
Taking guidance from our bi-monthly Australian Investors' Sentiment Survey, overall confidence isn't particularly high, but optimism (if we can call it that) has bounced from the scary, wary volatility days in January. Australian investors remain market neutral, which is probably the best way to describe the dominant general attitude. Cash... Show More
The weak opening to the new calendar year has had a noticeable negative impact on investor sentiment in Australia. The number of bulls, short term, hasn't been this low since 2011-2012. No surprise then average cash levels in investment portfolios has risen to 21%, outside the range that has been... Show More
The loss of certainty about the Fed's first rate hike is causing more damage to financial markets than meets the eye. We can all have a good laugh about how wrong market consensus can be at times, but what's a market with no consensus? Confused. Divided. Directionless. Bearish. We now... Show More
Dr. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni research says “Everyone is bullish. Contrarians know that must be bearish. However, everyone has been bullish for a while, yet the S&P 500 rose to a record high of 2117 on April 24. That’s because everyone has finally figured out that fighting the Fed in... Show More
The best way to look at this is to assess market valuation, economic growth and inflation pressures, monetary conditions and investor sentiment. 1) Share market valuations are mostly okay. Sure, measured in isolation against their own history shares are no longer dirt cheap. In fact, forward price to earnings multiples... Show More
The Bull/Bear ratio is sending some ominous signals. The percentage of bulls in the Investors Intelligence's survey has reached the highest level since January 2005. It's worth taking a look at the red-shaded areas on figures 2 and 3 to see corrections that occurred immediately after high ratios of bulls... Show More
FNArena is gauging investor sentiment this week. You too can participate - only takes 5 minutes of your time http://tiny.cc/k254fx Show More
How is the US government shutdown and looming debt ceiling affecting investor sentiment? Surprisingly, investors have remained fairly resilient during this politician-created mess. In fact, the S&P 500 is flat over the last week and still up over 2% for the month. At the end of last week, bullish sentiment... Show More