Is last week's reporting season carnage a sign of things to come?

Please note, this interview was recorded today - 13 February 2026. 

Well folks, it doesn't get much fresher than this. Just a couple of hours ago, I sat down with my former colleague, Henry Jennings of Marcus Today, to get his hot take on a big week of reporting season, the key beats and misses, and what he's keeping an eye on for the rest of the season. 

Stocks covered include: 

• AMP Limited (ASX: AMP)
• Car Group (ASX: CAR)
• Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA)
• CSL Limited (ASX: CSL)
• Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN)
• Insurance Australia Group (ASX: IAG)
• James Hardie (ASX: JHX)
• Northern Star (ASX: NST)
• Pro Medicus (ASX: PME)
• Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW)

INTERVIEW SUMMARY

Reporting season has opened with extraordinary volatility, particularly among large-cap names. 

Henry Jennings describes it as “killing season,” with some blue chips suffering 20–30% share price swings on the back of results. Beneath the theatrics, however, important stock-specific stories are emerging across healthcare, technology, financials, gold, retail, insurance, and building materials.

CSL: from blue-chip royalty to turnaround question mark

CSL has fallen sharply from its once unassailable position as Australia’s premier corporate performer. Jennings traces the inflection point back to the acquisition of Vifor, arguing the company overpaid for an asset already facing competitive pressure from generic iron deficiency drugs.

With leadership upheaval and weaker-than-expected numbers compounding concerns, CSL now trades on far more reasonable multiples than in its glory years. However, Jennings still sees more headwinds than tailwinds. 

While sentiment may be washed out, he does not yet see a clear catalyst for reacceleration in earnings. For now, it remains in the “avoid” basket, albeit one that must be monitored given its scale and historical quality.

CAR Group and Pro Medicus: disruption comes full circle

Both CAR Group and Pro Medicus find themselves under pressure as investors grapple with artificial intelligence disruption.

CAR Group delivered a solid interim result, though sentiment around tech-linked names remains fragile. The irony, as discussed, is that businesses built on earlier waves of disruption may now face their own technological reckoning. Jennings draws parallels to the late 1990s, when digital platforms such as CAR Group displaced legacy media classifieds.

Pro Medicus, meanwhile, disappointed relative to elevated expectations. The business remains somewhat lumpy due to the nature of large contract wins, and while it has benefited from a strategic investment in 4DX, the broader tech sell-off has left it vulnerable. 

Jennings remains cautious, noting that AI-related names continue to be driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. In this environment, stocks that appear “cheap” often get cheaper.

AMP: value trap or reset opportunity?

AMP endured a brutal sell-off, dropping more than 25% following its result. Revenue margin resets in its platforms business and leadership transition added to uncertainty.

Although the stock now trades at a significant discount to its historical forward PE multiple and may have been oversold in the immediate aftermath, structural challenges persist. Competitive pressures in banking and wealth management remain intense. 

Jennings suggests the bounce seen after the initial plunge may reflect technical factors rather than renewed conviction. A new CEO could help steady the ship, but trust must be rebuilt.

Gold miners: cash flow machines in a higher-for-longer world

If there has been a clear pocket of strength, it is gold. Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining have benefited from elevated bullion prices, with analysts upgrading earnings expectations.

The key takeaway is cash generation. With gold prices holding at historically high levels, these miners are generating significant free cash flow and, in some cases, raising dividends. 

Jennings emphasises the “higher for longer” dynamic: the longer prices remain elevated, the more attractive these businesses become.

The perennial risk, of course, is capital allocation. History shows miners often squander windfalls on ill-timed acquisitions. For now, however, fiscal discipline appears improved, and the sector stands as one of the reporting season’s relative winners.

Temple & Webster: growth without profits under scrutiny

Temple & Webster saw its share price collapse by roughly one-third after delivering meagre profits relative to its prior market capitalisation.

Jennings questions the sustainability of a multi-billion-dollar valuation for a business generating only single-digit millions in earnings. While management highlights total addressable market opportunities and strong customer growth metrics, the market has pivoted back to profitability and cash flow. With substantial cash on the balance sheet, there is some downside protection, but until margins improve meaningfully, the stock remains difficult to justify.

IAG: competitive pressures mount

Insurance Australia Group delivered a mixed result, downgrading gross written premium growth and insurance profit guidance. While the valuation is not stretched, the insurance sector has come under pressure amid competitive intensity and emerging comparison tools.

Jennings sees limited near-term catalysts, suggesting the stock may continue to drift without a clearer improvement in operating momentum.

James Hardie: redemption after governance missteps

James Hardie Industries was among the few clear winners. After a turbulent period linked to its AZEK acquisition and governance backlash, the company has rebounded strongly from its lows.

The latest result beat expectations, with solid performance in siding, trim and decking. Balance sheet leverage is being reduced and management appears to have regained some investor confidence. While U.S. housing data remains a macro variable to watch, the company is executing well on controllable factors. 

For Jennings, it sits firmly in the “winner” category this season.

Outlooks

Across the board, reaffirmed guidance rather than upgrades has been a common theme in outlook statements. Currency effects, particularly the Australian dollar, are influencing outlooks. More broadly, algorithmic and sentiment-driven trading appears to be amplifying share price reactions to even minor earnings misses.

In short, reporting season has underscored a bifurcated market: capital is fleeing expensive growth and perceived disruption risks, while cash-generative cyclicals and miners are being rewarded. Whether this carnage signals a broader turning point or simply extreme short-term volatility remains to be seen.